Oil has climbed back to an Iran-war high and could rise further if the U.S. and Israel strike Iran after their voters go to the polls in the coming days. Markets are on edge ahead of the weekend as midterm elections approach.
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oil pricesIrangeopoliticsmidterm elections
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Related tickers and likely impact
XAU/USD
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: high
| Market | Gold |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 4,024.59 |
| Change that session | -2.82% |
QQQ
▼ Likely negativeInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 704.47 |
| Change that session | -2.86% |
SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 763.96 |
| Change that session | -1.18% |
DXY
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 101.62 |
| Change that session | -0.07% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- American embassies tighten security as Iran threat warnings intensify ahead of U.S. midterm elections
New reports said Iran is in the “advanced stages” of planning attacks against Americans, and a memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton, reported by The New York Times, said Iran has “substantially increased efforts to target U.S. personnel” in the region, with the threats also applying to “certain other countries.” The warnings come as the U.S. ordered non-emergency government employees to leave Saudi Arabia, amid worsening attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis and a broader U.S.-Iran war nearing its eighth month. The Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed two ballistic missiles fired by the Houthis toward Taif and Yanbu on Saturday. The Trump administration has vowed to delay military strikes on Iran until after the Nov. 3 midterm elections, where inflation and affordability are voters’ top concerns. Oil prices soared, with Brent crude futures topping $116 a barrel, a six-month high, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate rising 3.8% to settle above $103 a barrel.
- US-Israel military planning: New strike plans against Iran being developed for post-US election window
US and Israeli militaries have developed specific plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections, with likely targets including energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenals, and have stepped up exercises. Some officials believe one more intensive round could push Iran's economy to the brink and force diplomatic concessions, but skeptics doubt a renewed war would succeed where the February–April campaign, which drove up global energy prices and inflation, did not. Trump has repeatedly vetoed plans for major combat this year and is seen as likely to wait until after the election, while the US will not have its full military assets in place until early November. Iran has vowed to widen its retaliation to data centres and undersea internet cables, and talks continue even though Iran has been unwilling to concede on its nuclear program.
- US - Israel military planning : New strike plans against Iran being developed for post - US election window
According to US officials, the US and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the American midterm elections, with a short but intensive operation in preparation. Both sides have stepped up drills, including flights over Iraq, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week to discuss new strikes. Likely targets include Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal. Some officials argue one more large round of attacks could push Iran's economy to the brink and force diplomatic concessions, while skeptics point out that the February to April campaign drove up global energy prices and inflation, eroded Middle East security and severely strained the Pentagon's missile interceptor supply. Trump has repeatedly vetoed plans for major combat this year, and Israel's election on Tuesday could complicate the timeline.
- US - Israel military planning : New strike plans against Iran being developed for post - US election window
According to US officials, the US and Israeli militaries have developed plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the American midterm elections, targeting Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week to discuss new strikes. Some officials believe one more major round of attacks could push Iran's economy to the brink and force diplomatic concessions, though skeptics note a renewed war may not be more successful than the first phase between February and April, which drove up energy prices and global inflation. The US will not have its full military assets in place until early November, and Trump has repeatedly vetoed plans for major combat this year. Iran has threatened to expand its targets to data centres and undersea internet cables if attacked.
- How Iran messaging highlights cost of war ahead of US midterm elections
Iranian officials are using English-language messaging to target American audiences, stressing the cost of the war launched by the United States and Israel ahead of the midterm elections. They have published articles in state-affiliated outlets on the war's impact on oil prices and the US economy, while parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has highlighted inflation rising to 3.7 percent. US diesel reached a record $6.33 per gallon and gasoline is $4.33, up from under $3 before the war began on February 28, after Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC accused Trump of lying about the war's costs. Trump has suggested he would either strike a deal with Iran or return to full-scale war after the November 3 elections.
- Retail price impacts from the Iran war are uneven but add up for US households before midterms
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