Oracle shares rose 12% over the past week after its Investor Day, where the company said it expects positive free cash flow in the second half of fiscal 2028 and over $30 billion in fiscal 2029, versus a consensus of $5.9 billion. New capital raises through fiscal 2030 are capped at $20 billion, less than half the $50 billion to $60 billion Evercore estimated for its AI buildout. The main risk cited is that S&P puts OpenAI at about half of Oracle's backlog. With forward earnings at about 17x versus a 21x five-year average, the author takes a positive view of Oracle for patient investors, with second-quarter results in mid-December as the first test.
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