Oracle had targeted $225 billion of revenue and $21 of adjusted earnings per share for fiscal 2030 at an October 16, 2025 investor meeting, while shares now trade around $126, about 60% below that day's close. Fiscal 2026 revenue reached $67.4 billion and adjusted EPS reached $6.83, close to plan, and management now expects at least $90 billion of revenue in fiscal 2027. What has changed is spending: capital expenditures were about $76 billion over the 12 months through August 2026, free cash flow was negative $28.7 billion, borrowings rose around 37% to about $125 billion, Oracle sold $20 billion of common stock, and S&P cut its rating to BBB- in July. The author notes the profit targets have held, but more future profit now goes to lenders and is spread over more shares, and wants to learn how Oracle will fund 2027 before judging whether the stock is attractive.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
Keywords
OraclevaluationAI investmentcloud computing
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
NVDA
• NeutralNvidia
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
| Market cap | $5.1T |
| Close on 10/26/2026 | 215.98 |
| Change that session | +2.38% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Oracle Could Have a Massive AI Opportunity. Here's Where the Stock Could Go
Oracle posted its strongest cloud growth in years in fiscal Q1 2027, with cloud infrastructure revenue up 121% to $7.39 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.92 versus a $1.74 estimate. Management raised full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance to $8.10, and contracted revenue not yet recognized reached $664 billion. Shares sit near their 52-week low, down 34.93% year to date, as investors worry about debt funding the AI buildout. Free cash flow came in at -$5.40 billion on $28.5 billion of capital spending, and interest expense rose 55% to $1.4 billion. The 24/7 Wall St. model sets a $195.90 price target, implying 56.04% upside from $125.54, with a buy rating at 90% confidence, while its bear case is $167.93. Key points to watch include whether cloud growth lands within the guided 65% to 71% range in results due December 14.
- Microsoft Vs. Oracle: Massive Backlog Fortunes With Vastly Different Risk Profiles
Microsoft and Oracle each reported record backlogs, $678 billion in commercial RPO for Microsoft and $664 billion for Oracle, but the funding behind them differs. Microsoft's fiscal Q4 revenue rose 17.8% to $90.01 billion and free cash flow reached $19.64 billion, with nearly 90% of Microsoft Cloud revenue coming from customers outside the frontier model companies. Oracle's $28.50 billion of capex pushed free cash flow to -$5.40 billion, interest expense rose 55% to $1.4 billion, and it completed a $20 billion at-the-market stock sale, while its CFO did not give a timeframe for positive free cash flow. Oracle shares fell 54.35% over the past year and trade at about 18x forward earnings versus 25x for Microsoft. The author says they prefer Microsoft for its diversified revenue and positive cash flow, while Oracle carries more uncertainty.
- Prediction: Oracle Could Become a Much Bigger AI Winner Than Investors Expect
Oracle shares have fallen about 32% this year despite cloud revenue growing 62% and $664 billion in remaining performance obligations (RPO). The 24/7 Wall St. model sets a $201.27 price target, about 54.1% above the $130.63 share price, with a buy rating. Fiscal Q1 2027 non-GAAP EPS was $1.92 against a $1.7391 estimate, and revenue reached $19.345 billion. The bear case of $171.69 still sits above the current price, with risks including free cash flow of -$5.396 billion and interest expense up 55% to $1.4 billion. The article argues Oracle is growing faster than Microsoft and Amazon at a lower multiple.
- Where Will Oracle Stock Be in 2029? | The Motley Fool
Oracle's stock has fallen 53% over the past year, despite expectations that it would benefit from the AI infrastructure boom, as investors worry about debt of just over $169 billion against a $37 billion cash pile used to fund data center expansion. Its remaining performance obligations reached $664 billion, up $209 billion year over year, and fiscal Q1 revenue rose 30% to $19.3 billion, led by a 121% jump in cloud infrastructure revenue to $7.4 billion. Oracle is asking customers to prepay or bring their own hardware, which the article says should ease pressure on free cash flow and debt. Analysts expect earnings growth to step up sharply in fiscal 2029, after a 7% increase in the current year. The article argues that if EPS reaches $15.79 and the stock trades at 19 times earnings, the share price could hit $300, 129% above its current level.
- Where Will Oracle Stock Be in 2029?
Oracle (ORCL) stock has dipped 53% over the past year as the company has borrowed heavily, with debt of about $169 billion versus $37 billion in cash, to build data center capacity for its contract backlog. Remaining performance obligations reached $664 billion, up $209 billion year over year, while fiscal Q1 revenue rose 30% to $19.3 billion and cloud infrastructure revenue jumped 121% to $7.4 billion. The article notes that customer prepayments and bring-your-own-hardware arrangements ease the balance-sheet burden, and analysts expect earnings growth to step up in fiscal 2029 after a 7% increase this year. The article argues that if EPS reaches $15.79 in fiscal 2029 and the stock trades at 19 times earnings, the price could reach $300, 129% above its current level.
- Oracle’s Growth to Valuation Mismatch is Less and Less Compelling
Oracle's cloud backlog (remaining performance obligations) reached $664 billion and cloud infrastructure revenue rose 121% to $7.39 billion, yet free cash flow was negative $5.4 billion last quarter and negative $23.7 billion in fiscal 2026. Management expects $90 billion to $95 billion in capex this year, interest expense rose 55% to $1.4 billion, and the company plans to raise about $40 billion more through debt and equity after a $20 billion equity sale. The CFO declined to give a timeline for positive free cash flow. Shares trade at $131.14, about 16x the $8.10 non-GAAP EPS guidance, but are down 31.85% year to date while the S&P 500 is up 12.78%, and the article argues the valuation hinges on whether cash flow catches up with the backlog.
Related markets
Latest news
- UPS beats quarterly expectations, raises full-year guidance again
UPS reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.69 per share, above the $1.63 expected, and revenue of $22.9 billion versus $22.29 billion expected. Net income was $1.16 billion, or $1.37 per share, down from $1.31 billion, or $1.55, a year earlier. The company raised its full-year consolidated revenue projection to about $92.6 billion from $91.2 billion and forecasts fourth-quarter revenue of $25.7 billion. Domestic revenue rose 4.5%, international revenue 7.1%, and supply chain solutions 18.2%, driven mainly by forwarding and logistics, including healthcare. CEO Carol Tomé said UPS is entering the holiday shipping season 'from a position of strength' with the most automated and efficient network in its history.
- Ripple Wins Final OCC Approval for Trust Bank Behind $2.6B RLUSD Stablecoin
The OCC has granted Ripple final approval to open Ripple National Trust Bank, 10 months after conditionally approving the charter in December 2025. The bank will manage the reserves backing the RLUSD stablecoin, act as collateral trustee for holders, and offer fiduciary digital asset custody to enterprises. RLUSD will still be issued by Standard Custody & Trust Company, which is regulated by the New York DFS, so the stablecoin will fall under both state and federal supervision. The approval comes as community banks challenge the OCC's crypto charters in court, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren has called the charters illegal. According to CoinGecko, RLUSD has a market capitalization of about $2.6 billion.
- China’s AI Stock Rout Scary, but Crypto Punters Aren’t Calling a US Bubble Burst Yet
Crypto bettors see little near-term risk of an AI crash in the U.S., even as warning signs emerge from China. On Polymarket, the Polygon (POL)-based prediction market, the chance of an AI-industry bubble burst is priced at only 9%.
- Microsoft announces voluntary buyouts for 60,000 employees worldwide
Microsoft has announced a voluntary buyout programme for about 60,000 employees, more than a quarter of its global workforce, to manage expenses and support ongoing AI investments, according to Reuters. The offer applies to eligible staff in Canada, India, the UK and the US at level 70 and below, across divisions including AI experiences, finance, Copilot, human resources, Xbox and Windows + Devices, while marketing, commercial business and security are excluded. It follows an earlier buyout offer to around 9,000 US employees (7% of the American workforce) and 4,800 job cuts in July, about 2.1% of global headcount. The company has a reported forecast of $175bn in capital expenditures for calendar 2026, and it employed 223,000 full-time staff as of 30 June 2026.
- Hiltzik: Who would gain from a merger of Musk's SpaceX and Musk's Tesla? Take a wild guess
Musk called a possible merger of Tesla and SpaceX 'a good idea' with 'a lot of merit' on an October 20 call about SpaceX's third-quarter results, and Tesla shares rose about 3.4% the next day. Special committees at both companies are reviewing the deal, which would need shareholder approval, including more than 50% of all Tesla shareholders; Musk owned about 20% of the shares as of Sept. 30. The combined company would be a $3.5-trillion behemoth, America's fifth-largest by market value according to Reuters. The author argues that benefits from such mergers typically flow to insiders, pointing to the 2016 Tesla-SolarCity deal, after which Tesla shares fell more than 10% the day after it was announced.
- Big Tech just went from crushing the average stock to losing to it: Chart of the Day
Chip stocks are sliding in October while consumer staples are on track for their best month in nearly five years. The equal-weighted S&P 500 is beating the regular index by about 4 points so far this month, reversing a 4.5 percentage points deficit in September. The PHLX Semiconductor Index is still down about 12% this month after Monday's bounce, while Energy (XLE) is up 13% and Staples (XLP) up 9%. Yahoo Finance calculations suggest this could be the largest one-month swing in favor of the average stock since at least 1990. Ryan Detrick of Carson Group said late October has often marked major lows in midterm years, and midterm years have been the weakest part of the four-year presidential cycle since 1950, with a median S&P 500 gain of about 1%.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.