The article projects the value of investing $100 per month in Eli Lilly (LLY) stock through late 2030, about four years. Assuming annual growth of 25%, a more conservative figure than growth above 30%, the $4,800 invested could be worth close to $8,000, a gain of roughly 67%. Growth is driven by GLP-1 weight-loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, with Morgan Stanley forecasting the global GLP-1 market could more than double between 2025 and 2035 to $190 billion, though competition from Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy exists. The article notes Lilly's price-to-sales ratio of 14.4 is above its five-year average of 13.3, while its P/E of 43 is below the five-year average of 58, and says a pullback is possible.
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Eli Lilly tested tirzepatide (the active ingredient in Zepbound) combined with eloralintide, an experimental drug targeting the amylin hormone rather than GLP-1. After 48 weeks, the combination produced weight loss of up to 23.3%, versus 14.8% with tirzepatide alone and 12.3% with eloralintide alone. However, discontinuation rates due to side effects reached as high as 27%, though Lilly’s Ken Custer noted that high discontinuation was also seen with tirzepatide in a mid-stage trial and that dosing can matter. The author views the results as a net positive but flags a steep valuation, with a market cap above $1 trillion and the stock trading near 40 times trailing earnings after rising around 10% this year.
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