The S&P 500 stood near 7,714 at writing, up almost 13% from its 2025 close of 6,845.50, after gains of about 24%, 23% and 16% in 2023 through 2025. To post a fourth straight 10%-plus year, it must close above about 7,530, a buffer of roughly 2.4% with about 10 weeks left. Since 1950, the index rose from Oct. 20 to year-end in 59 of 76 years and fell more than 2.4% in only six, while every year it had already gained 10% or more by Oct. 20 finished above that mark. Past streaks of four double-digit years are rare, and all five of the earlier streaks ended with a losing year. The author expects a fourth gain but says the streak alone should not lead buy-and-hold investors to buy or sell the index.
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SPY
▲ Likely positiveSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/21/2026 | 773.09 |
| Change that session | +0.53% |
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