AWS revenue reached $42.23 billion in Q2 FY26, up 37% year over year and its fastest growth in 18 quarters, yet Amazon shares at $262.59 sit below their 52-week high of $287.20. Amazon raised its 2026 capex estimate to roughly $220 billion from about $200 billion, citing higher memory costs, and free cash flow was -$7.6 billion on a trailing basis. The article's five-year base case puts shares at $489.98 by October 2030, while the consensus target is $331.46. Reaching $500 would require a 90.4% gain, implying a forward P/E of 47x on consensus FY2027 EPS of $10.5519. The author calls the target ambitious but credible if AWS keeps growing above 30%, AI margins follow the core cloud path, and revenue outpaces capex; a recession hitting enterprise cloud budgets is the main risk.
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Amazoncloud computingearningsvaluationartificial intelligence
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Related tickers and likely impact
AMZN
▲ Likely positiveAmazon
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary |
| Industry | Broadline Retail |
| Market cap | $2.7T |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 250.49 |
| Change that session | -4.53% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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