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Prediction market odds on Tesla-SpaceX merger are above 50% for early 2027

Following a Barclays note on a possible Tesla and SpaceX merger, prediction market odds of an integration before March rose from 29% to 56% by Friday morning. Both companies are controlled by Elon Musk, who recently spoke of 'more and more overlap' between them on Tesla's earnings call. Barclays now expects a merger could be announced before Tesla's annual general meeting, which must take place no later than Dec. 6, 2026, possibly framed as an AI vertical integration involving Robotaxi, Optimus, Grok and Macrohard. Analyst Dan Levy said the true value would lie in vertical integration rather than financial synergies. Separately, Evercore ISI recommended buying SpaceX shares and raised its 12-month price target by 20% to $275.

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MarketUS stocks
SectorConsumer Discretionary
IndustryAutomobile Manufacturers
Market cap$1.4T
Close on 10/15/2026362.44
Change that session-1.29%
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