Sandisk (SNDK) has fallen 32% since early July after rising 858% in the first half of 2026, but the article argues the slide reflects concerns about the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending rather than the company's financial performance. Sandisk guided fiscal 2027 first-quarter revenue to $10.3–$10.8 billion and non-GAAP EPS to $45.00, implying 357% year-over-year revenue growth at the midpoint. TrendForce expects NAND flash industry revenue to reach $379 billion in 2027, up 40%, and Counterpoint Research puts Sandisk's NAND market share at 11%. The stock trades at 8 times forward earnings versus 19 for the S&P 500. The author expects results due October 29 to beat expectations and could lift the stock.
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- Sandisk Just Dipped Below $1400 Which Means a Lot to Certain Investors
Sandisk shares dipped to $1,394.83, below the $1,400 level, after falling 13.34% over the past week while the S&P 500 slipped 0.28%. The selloff followed China's CXMT saying it will begin producing next-generation memory chips aimed at taking share from U.S. and Korean suppliers. In its fiscal fourth quarter, Sandisk posted non-GAAP EPS of $39.25 versus a $33.28 consensus and revenue of $8.96 billion, up 371.6%, and it guides to $44.00–$46.00 EPS for the current quarter. The article notes that the 84.6% non-GAAP gross margin may be a peak-cycle figure, and the stock trades at 16.9 times book value. The consensus target of $2,173 implies 55.8% upside, though targets are estimates and not guaranteed.
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Sandisk (SNDK) stock is up 566% so far in 2026 but more than 35% below its summer peak, and the company reports fiscal first-quarter 2027 results on Oct. 29. In its fiscal fourth quarter, revenue rose 372% year over year, gross margin was 84.6%, and operating income rose from $18 million to more than $7 billion. For the coming quarter, management guides to $10.55 billion in revenue at the midpoint, up 346% year over year, with a gross margin of about 84%. Wall Street expects EPS of $46.27 versus $1.22 a year earlier, and the company has multiyear agreements with eight clients under its new business model. The author says the stock trades under 22 times trailing earnings but advises a cautious approach given its volatility.
- Sandisk's Sales Fell 38% in the Last Flash Memory Downturn, and Its Oct. 29 Report Is the Next Test
Three years ago, Sandisk was selling flash memory below cost. In fiscal 2023, revenue fell 38% and gross margin dropped from 33.3% to 7.1%, leading to a net loss of about $2.1 billion. By contrast, fiscal Q4 2026 revenue rose 51% sequentially to $8.97 billion, about two-thirds driven by higher prices, with gross margin at 84.6%. Guidance for fiscal Q1 2027 points to revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion and non-GAAP gross margin of 83% to 85%, suggesting slower growth. The author says the October 29 report will show whether pricing still lifts revenue and whether margins hold, as TrendForce expects NAND contract prices to rise another 15% to 20% in the October-to-December quarter. Though shares sit about 30% below their 52-week high, the author argues the stock still reflects risk of falling profits and wants margins to hold through a quarter of falling flash prices before buying.
- Why Sandisk Stock Shot Higher Today
Sandisk shares jumped as much as 8.3% and were still up 7.9% at 11:24 a.m. ET, helped by a tech rebound and positive news in high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Nvidia has developed NVHBM, a custom HBM die with 15% lower power consumption and 30% higher bandwidth that links NVLink and HBM chips. A Seoul Economic Daily report says Nvidia asked Samsung Electronics to use TSMC's 3-nanometer process to make NVHBM dies, the first such collaboration between the two. Nvidia has also approached Micron and SK Hynix to standardize the process, which could free compute-die space for up to 30% additional compute. The article argues this suggests AI adoption still has room to grow, which would also benefit memory suppliers, and notes Sandisk trades at 19 times earnings and 6 times forward earnings.
- The Best Growth Stock to Invest $10,000 in Right Now
Sandisk shares have surged 827% over the past year but dropped 44% from their June 22 52-week high, with fears over NAND flash demand, AI infrastructure spending and competition from China's CXMT. The author argues these fears are overblown, since CXMT doesn't make NAND flash and its DRAM technology reportedly trails Micron and SK Hynix. Enterprise SSD demand is booming on the back of the AI boom, with contract prices reportedly up 3x year over year, and McKinsey and IDC forecast annual growth of 35% and over 40% through 2030, respectively. Sandisk posted $20 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue with an 11% NAND market share, and its TAM is seen reaching $500 billion next year. The company targets mid-to-high teens annual revenue growth in fiscal 2028 to 2030 and a non-GAAP operating margin of 75% by fiscal 2030, versus 63% in fiscal 2026.
- Why SandiskStock Keeps Going Down
Sandisk (Nasdaq: SNDK) shares kept falling, with a 4.6% drop on Wednesday as of 2:35 p.m. ET, leaving them down 11% for the week and approaching a 20% loss for the month. The sell-off followed news that China's CXMT is making “key progress” on “4F square” DRAM technology and plans to introduce products for the high bandwidth memory (HBM) market for AI data centers before the end of this year, raising fears that its gap with Western memory chipmakers is narrowing. The author notes that Sandisk makes NAND, not DRAM, so CXMT is not a direct competitor. Citing Mizuho analyst Jordan Klein, the author says CXMT is probably years away from mass production and its product is unlikely to match HBM chips, so investors shouldn't panic.
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