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Prediction: SpaceX Will Be the Biggest Winner If Neoclouds Collapse

Gartner predicts that 80% of neocloud companies will no longer exist by 2030, a forecast that has hit neocloud stocks and could itself trigger the collapses it anticipates. The author argues that if funding dries up, SpaceX would be the biggest winner, as it is arguably a neocloud itself with major compute deals, including $1.25 billion a month from Anthropic for over 300 megawatts of computing power and $920 million a month from Alphabet for 110,000 Nvidia GPUs. Thanks to its investment-grade rating, GPU-backed financing and high valuation, SpaceX has a much lower cost of capital than rivals and could buy distressed hardware, power access and data center sites at steep discounts. Its close ties to Nvidia could also help it secure GPU clusters in any distressed sale.

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