About 55 million retired-worker beneficiaries rely on Social Security, and Gallup surveys show up to 90% of retirees depend on it in some capacity. The 2026 Trustees Report projects the OASI trust fund will exhaust its reserves by the fourth quarter of 2032, and estimates benefit cuts of 22% may be needed in six years. The Big, Beautiful Bill includes temporary tax breaks for 2025 through 2028, and the Office of the Actuary estimates the law will increase trust fund costs by $168.6 billion from 2025 through 2034, mainly because less income is subject to the 12.4% payroll tax. The article argues this is relatively small compared with the $29.3 trillion long-term unfunded obligation through 2100, which mainly stems from ongoing demographic shifts.
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