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- Robinhood Sinks 7% as Crypto Slump and Tighter Spreads Overshadow Record Prediction Markets Quarter; Interactive Brokers Edges Higher, Webull Barely Budges
Robinhood (HOOD) shares were down 7% at $88 in morning trading, while Interactive Brokers (IBKR) rose 2% to $83 and Webull (BULL) barely moved. In Q3 2026, Robinhood's revenue rose 12% year over year to $1.42 billion, just below the $1.43 billion consensus, and GAAP diluted EPS was $0.51 versus a $0.57 estimate. Crypto trading revenue fell 55% to $120 million and net interest revenue slid 9% to $415 million, while operating expenses rose 16% to $739 million. On the other side, prediction markets revenue hit a record $173 million and options trading revenue rose 31%. CFO Shiv Verma estimated that each 25 basis point move in rates shifts revenue by 1.5%, all else being equal, ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision at 2 p.m. ET on October 28.
- Robinhood’s Tenev warns US tokenization uncertainty deters ‘serious assets’
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev says uncertainty over how long US tokenization rules will last could keep investors from putting substantial assets into tokenized markets, even though the SEC has opened a temporary path through an innovation exemption. He says further rulemaking or legislation is needed to provide longer-term certainty, and Binance Research projects the tokenized equities market could reach $349 billion by 2030 under its base case, from $4.43 billion as of Sept. 15. In the third quarter, Robinhood's crypto revenue fell 55% year on year to $120 million and crypto notional trading volume fell 38% to $50 billion. By contrast, event-contract revenue rose sixfold to $173 million, and total net revenue rose 12% to a record $1.42 billion, below analyst expectations. Adjusted EPS was $0.60, missing estimates by 4 cents.
- Robinhood Misses Q3 Earnings as Crypto Revenue Rises and Prediction Market Bets Grow
Robinhood reported record third-quarter revenue of $1.42 billion, slightly below the roughly $1.43 billion expected, and earnings of $0.51 per share versus $0.55 expected. Event contracts revenue rose to $173 million from $156 million in the prior quarter, while crypto revenue rose to $120 million but fell 55% from a year earlier. Customers traded a record 16.4 billion event contracts, more than seven times a year earlier. Net income was $476 million, down 14% from a year earlier, and the quarter included a $67 million unrealized loss on Robinhood Ventures Fund I. The company narrowed its 2026 adjusted operating expense guidance to $2.675 billion to $2.75 billion, and shares slipped in after-hours trading.
- Robinhood's crypto revenue fell 55% from last year, but topped Street forecasts
Robinhood's third-quarter crypto trading revenue fell 55% year over year to $120 million, or 8.4% of total revenue versus 21% a year earlier, but still beat analysts' forecast of $114.1 million. Crypto trading volume dropped 38% to $50 billion, with the Robinhood app down 48% to $21 billion and Bitstamp down 28% to $29 billion. Total revenue rose 12% to $1.424 billion, helped by options, equities and prediction markets, while third-quarter EPS of $0.51 fell short of the $0.55 consensus. Robinhood Chain processed more than $80 billion in decentralized exchange volume and generated over $50 million in chain fees in its first quarter on mainnet, though the company did not disclose how much of that was recognized as revenue. Shares fell about 5% in post-market trading.
- Is Robinhood Stock a Buy About a Third Below Its Record High?
Robinhood shares trade near $97, about 35% below the all-time high of around $152 reached in late 2025, a bigger decline than Charles Schwab (about 15%) and Interactive Brokers (about 20%). The author argues the stock still looks expensive, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 42x versus 16x for Schwab and 31x for Interactive Brokers, which makes value investors less likely to be interested. The company went public only in 2021 and has not been tested by a deep, prolonged downturn, while its customers, many new to investing, are using more margin (margin balances up 127% year over year in Q2 2026) and expanding into crypto and prediction markets. The author says the premium over peers could keep most investors on the sidelines until the company and its customers face a test on the scale of the Great Recession or the dot-com bubble.
- Should Robinhood Shares Be in Your Portfolio Ahead of Q3 Earnings?
Robinhood (HOOD) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results tomorrow after market close, with Zacks consensus revenue of $1.44 billion, up 13.1% year over year. Consensus earnings per share is 56 cents, down 8.2% from a year earlier, and the company has beaten consensus in three of the last four quarters. Transaction revenues are expected to rise 21.6% to $887.7 million, led by options and equities, while cryptocurrency transaction revenues are seen falling 55.7% and net interest revenue dropping 5.6%. HOOD shares rose 29.9% in the third quarter but trade at 9.88X trailing price/tangible book, above the industry's 2.95X. The article notes investors are weighing whether to act before the report or wait for more information.
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- Why Micron Technology Stock Rallied Today
Micron shares rose about 4.8% in Wednesday trading, after SK Hynix reported record fiscal 2026 third-quarter revenue of 104.6 trillion won (roughly $78.9 billion), up 328% year over year, and operating profit of 83.3 trillion won (roughly $61.7 billion). SK Hynix said demand is expected to outpace supply through 2030 and its supply is essentially sold out for the next three years, easing fears of falling memory demand from 2028, and announced it would return 100 trillion won to shareholders. The article says Micron, one of the Big Three memory makers, stands to benefit from demand for HBM, DRAM and NAND, and has locked major customers into multi-year, non-cancelable contracts. Micron stock has gained more than 340% over the past year but trades at 13 times earnings, and the author describes that valuation as attractive.
- Jim Cramer sees buying opportunities in these 2 beaten-down stocks
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- Prediction: Palantir Stock Will Skyrocket After Nov. 2
Palantir shares have risen 62% over the past three months amid renewed confidence in software stocks, ahead of third-quarter results due after the close on Nov. 2. The company has beaten earnings expectations in each of the past four quarters, with Q2 revenue up 93% year over year to $1.93 billion and adjusted operating margin of 62%, versus 46% a year earlier. Consensus expects EPS of $0.46 for the current quarter, a potential 84% increase over last year. The stock trades at 181 times earnings versus 41 for the Nasdaq Composite, but the author argues strong earnings growth could justify the valuation, citing a PEG ratio of 0.63 according to Morningstar. The author suggests a better-than-expected report and guidance could lift the stock after Nov. 2.
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Amazon is expected to report a 12% rise in third-quarter revenue on Wednesday, with consensus at about $202.2 billion, and investors are watching whether AWS accelerates, with consensus at $45.4 billion to $45.6 billion, up around 37% to 38% from $33 billion. Bank of America forecasts AWS growth of 40% and a stable 39% operating margin, but warns that elevated expectations are a risk if investors look for AWS growth of 42% or more. On retail, card data showed online spending growth slowing to 9%, while advertising growth is expected to moderate after 26% in the second quarter, to 15% in the third quarter. Bank of America expects fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $239 billion to $246 billion, with a midpoint of $242.5 billion versus Wall Street's $244.6 billion, while its 2027 forward price-to-earnings multiple has fallen from 29 times at the end of 2025 to 23 times.
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AI stocks sold off last week on worries about AI spending, though the Nasdaq Composite is still up about 12% year to date. Ciena (CIEN) is down 70% from its recent high, yet fiscal third-quarter revenue rose 37% to $1.7 billion and it had $8.5 billion in orders awaiting fulfillment. Astera Labs (ALAB) closed Oct. 22 about 48% below its 52-week high, while Q2 revenue more than doubled to $392 million and Q3 revenue is guided to $540 million to $560 million. The author argues both companies benefit from long-term AI infrastructure demand, though competition from Broadcom is a risk. The author believes Ciena will outperform the market over the next decade.
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