JNIM and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) have fought across the borderlands of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, and reporting says the conflict has spread into western Niger and northwestern Nigeria. Clashes have intensified since September 2026; on 12 October ISSP claimed to have killed more than 400 JNIM fighters in Burkina Faso's Oudalan province, a claim not independently confirmed. ACLED data cited in the report show more than 320 battles and about 2,200 deaths between 2019 and September 2026. JNIM is estimated to have 7,000 to 8,000 fighters against about 2,000 for ISSP, and the two compete for rural populations, smuggling routes and taxation. The insecurity is already disrupting fuel and mining operations, and it threatens gold supply chains in Mali and uranium supply chains in Niger.
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