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Related tickers and likely impact
USD/CAD
• NeutralRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/16/2026 | 1.41389 |
| Change that session | -0.32% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Sentiment improved , but new tariffs weigh on business outlook : BoC report
The Bank of Canada's business outlook survey found average business sentiment improved in the third quarter, though firms remained worried about rising costs and the war in the Middle East. About three-quarters of the interviews, however, took place before trade talks between Canada and the United States broke down at the end of August and Canada announced new counter-tariffs. Afterward, firms pointed to new U.S. tariffs on some goods and Canadian counter-tariffs as weighing on their outlooks, and the bank said tariffs are dampening sentiment, weakening export and investment prospects, and pushing up costs and prices. A separate consumer survey found long-term inflation expectations rose to match short-term ones, and consumers reported better financial health than last quarter, though high prices and economic uncertainty still weigh on them. The bank's next rate decision and monetary policy report are due Oct. 28.
- Canadian dollar notches nearly four - week high on BoC rate hike bets
The Canadian dollar held most of its gains against the US dollar on Monday, as hawkish remarks from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem drew more attention than domestic inflation data. The loonie traded 0.3% higher at 1.4095 per US dollar, near its strongest intraday level since September 23. Macklem said the BoC expects to raise its quarterly inflation forecast significantly this month because of persistently high oil and petroleum prices. Swap market data showed about an 80% chance of a BoC rate hike on October 28, up from 30% on Friday, while the benchmark rate has stayed at 2.25% since last October. Canadian bond yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year up 11.1 basis points to 3.940%, as investors also awaited a nonbinding Alberta referendum on secession.
- Financial markets betting on BoC rate hike next week despite subdued inflation data
Financial markets have begun pricing in a Bank of Canada rate hike next week, giving more weight to Governor Tiff Macklem's hawkish remarks than to September inflation that came in better than expected. Statistics Canada reported annual inflation rose to 3.1% from 3%, driven by a 6.1% monthly jump in gasoline prices, while excluding energy it eased to 2.2%. Swap markets priced about an 80% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Oct. 28 decision, up from roughly 35% on Friday, and several Bay Street forecasters switched to calling for a hike, though it remains a minority view. Royce Mendes of Desjardins said central bankers can no longer look through the inflationary impact of high energy prices, while the BoC's two preferred core measures fell to 1.9% and 1.8%. Macklem said that if oil stays around US$100, inflation would gradually drift up from 3%, and the bank will weigh whether inflation returns to target on its own or whether rates must rise.
- Higher gas prices drove inflation up to 3 . 1 % in September : StatCan
Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 3.1% in September from 3% in August, as the Middle East war kept pushing up gasoline prices, which were up 27.8% from a year earlier. Excluding gasoline, consumer prices rose 2.2%, while fuel oil and other fuels surged 57.8%, hitting Atlantic Canada hard. Grocery inflation slowed to 1.7%, the smallest annual increase since May 2024, as fresh vegetable prices fell 2.9%. Shelter prices accelerated to 1.8% from 1.5%, and economists had broadly expected inflation at 3.2%. CIBC's Andrew Grantham said the report suggests policymakers have little rush to raise rates before assessing U.S. trade relations and new tariffs, while Governor Tiff Macklem warned that persistent energy prices raise the risk of broader inflation.
- Bank of Canada could still hike rates in 2026
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem sounded hawkish in an interview at an International Monetary Fund meeting, leading economists to suggest a rate hike could still come in 2026. Canada's headline inflation rose to 3.1% year over year in September, slightly below the 3.2% estimate, driven by higher gasoline prices, and has been above the bank's 1–3% target for eight of the past nine months. Core inflation slowed to 1.9% month over month (from 2%) and 1.8% year over year (from 1.9%), while the benchmark rate has been held at 2.25% for the past seven meetings. Bank of Montreal said markets had leaned toward a hike, but a tame core reading won't necessarily stop the bank as it stays focused on headline inflation above 3%. Royal Bank of Canada expects the bank to hold through the rest of the year and hike next year, given job losses in August and September, while KPMG Canada expects a hold in October with a possible hike as soon as December.
- Businesses expect Canada inflation rate to remain above 3 %
The Bank of Canada's quarterly Business Outlook Survey, released Monday, shows many businesses expect Canada's inflation rate to stay above 3% over the next two years, and about half plan to pass on some or all cost increases linked to the Iran war and tariffs. Inflation rose to 3.1% year over year in September from 3% in August, mainly due to higher energy prices. In the companion Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, households' median expectations were 4.03% for the next year and 3.88% for the next two years, with tariffs cited as the top factor. Firms' outlooks worsened and inflation expectations rose after trade talks with the U.S. broke down on Aug. 22, but they are not expected to return to levels seen at the start of the trade conflict in March 2025 or the April oil-price peak. The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision on Oct. 28, and these surveys are among the inputs for that decision.
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Latest news
- Aeroméxico Reports Unaudited Third Quarter 2026 Results
Aeroméxico reported unaudited third-quarter 2026 results, with record revenue of $1.6 billion, up 13.6% year over year, driven by international passenger demand, premium cabins, loyalty and cargo, which grew 15.8%. Fuel expense rose 57.6% to $469.0 million as jet fuel prices hit historic highs, but adjusted EBITDAR reached $389.2 million, a 24.0% margin, and operating income was $189.6 million, an 11.7% margin. The company recognized $48.7 million from an updated loyalty program breakage estimate, its first such alignment since 2018. Management expects fourth-quarter revenue to grow about 15% year over year, assuming an average all-in fuel price of about $4.5 per gallon and an exchange rate of 18.0 Mexican pesos per U.S. dollar.
- Why Berkshire's Latest Move Proves It's Not Really a Warren Buffett Company Anymore
Greg Abel took over as Berkshire Hathaway CEO at the start of 2026, though Warren Buffett and Abel are reportedly in regular contact on investment decisions. Berkshire has taken a stake in Milan-based Bending Spoons, investing $600 million in its IPO over the summer and adding $330 million since, a position of about 0.4% of its portfolio. The author argues this is out of character for Buffett, who was skeptical of acquisitive companies and prefers consistent, predictable earnings, while Bending Spoons buys and turns around troubled software businesses. The author sees the move as a possible turning point toward more risk-taking and tech investment under Abel, and suggests a wait-and-see approach to the stock until his investment choices become clearer.
- Solana treasury firm SkyAI sells all SOL holdings, launches $201M buyback
SkyAI, formerly Sharps Technology, has sold its entire Solana (SOL) treasury and launched a tender offer to buy back up to $201.3 million of shares and warrants, reversing its crypto accumulation strategy. As of Oct. 16 the company held about $223.8 million in cash, and the offer covers up to 95% of each class of shares and warrants at a fixed price, no longer tied to SOL's price as originally planned. The company says it will keep building a financial platform that combines stablecoin infrastructure on Solana with artificial intelligence. The strategy began in August 2025 after a private placement of more than $400 million, and by the end of 2025 it had produced about $153 million in unrealized losses. SkyAI shares closed Monday at $2.79, up 5.3% on the day.
- Tech stocks had a nice oversold bounce on Monday. Earnings this week will determine if it's for real
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rallied Monday as AI and chip stocks rebounded, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) on pace to snap a nine-day slump and the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) up 4%. Last week, the S&P 500 fell nearly 2%, its worst weekly decline since late June, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 4.5%. Whether the rebound lasts will depend largely on results from big tech names such as Meta and Tesla, as well as SpaceX, which reports after the bell Tuesday. Of the 47 S&P 500 companies that have reported third-quarter results, 85% have beaten expectations, but most tech earnings are still to come. Sameer Samana of Wells Fargo Investment Institute sees the AI selloff as a 'reality check' rather than a full-blown unraveling, though pressure may last through the midterms.
- Inflation Just Spooked the Market -- But There's Still Good News for Patient Investors
The September CPI rose 0.6% from the prior month and 3.7% year over year, up from 0.4% and 3.4% in the previous report, raising the odds of Federal Reserve rate hikes and pushing the S&P 500 down 1.1% that day. The author argues such swings are daily noise: so far in 2026, the S&P 500 has fallen more than 1% 18 times and gained more than 1% on 19 occasions. In a hypothetical example, $10,000 put into the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in October 2006 grew to $56,170 in share price terms, or $80,970 with dividends reinvested, despite a drop of more than 50% after the subprime crash, a COVID-19 plunge and the 2022 inflation crisis. Adjusted for inflation, $10,000 in October 2006 equals about $16,697 today, so the position is well ahead of inflation.
- Largest securities firm lends over US$2 billion
TCBS, the largest securities firm in the market, had margin lending balances of about VND 54,739 billion, up 25.6% from the start of the year, with nearly all of it (about VND 54,400 billion) used for margin. Lending was the main growth driver in the third quarter, accounting for 44% of revenue, or VND 1,561 billion, while total revenue reached VND 3,534 billion, up nearly 12%. Third-quarter pre-tax profit was VND 2,152 billion, up 6.3% and the highest ever, and nine-month pre-tax profit reached VND 5,708 billion, or 76% of the full-year plan. As of September 30, total assets were nearly VND 97,000 billion, and the margin lending-to-equity ratio stood at 1.15 times, below the 2 times regulatory limit. TCBS is a subsidiary of Techcombank, which owns nearly 80% of it, and currently leads the sector in charter capital, margin loan balances and market capitalization.
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