Netflix (NFLX) has lost about 25% of its value since the start of 2026, and its next earnings report is due Oct. 20. Revenue growth was 13.4% in the second quarter and is projected to slow to about 11.7% in the third quarter, while analysts expect 13.3% growth in 2026 and 11.2% in 2027. The author notes Netflix generates strong free cash flow without the heavy AI infrastructure spending of some rivals, and trades at 19.6 times forward earnings. However, the author views Netflix as becoming a market-average stock and says investors seeking to beat the market may find better options.
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Netflix reports third-quarter results next week, and its shares have fallen 40% over the past year as momentum and expectations both remain low. The company's own guidance calls for revenue growth of 11.7%, its weakest in three years, and revenue growth is expected to slow for a third consecutive quarter. The author notes the stock has fallen after each of its last five quarterly reports, with an early spring rally as the main exception. The article also points out that Netflix has recovered from past plunges, including an 83% drop after the Qwikster fiasco in 2011 and a 77% peak-to-trough fall in 2022 that it made back within two years. The author finds the recent chart troubling, but says the longer-term record is more encouraging.
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Alphabet, the parent of Google, is seen as a beneficiary of the AI boom. Google advertising made up 68% of the latest quarter's total revenue of $119 billion, while revenue from enterprise AI solutions and infrastructure rose 82% to more than $24 billion. The Gemini app surpassed one billion monthly users in August, becoming Alphabet's fastest-growing product. Alphabet is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on Oct. 28, with analysts expecting revenue of about $127 billion, up 25% year over year, while free cash flow may face pressure from AI infrastructure spending, for which the company raised capex guidance to as much as $205 billion. The author argues that for long-term investors, whether they buy before or after the report matters little to returns.
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- Should You Buy Amazon Stock Before October Ends?
Amazon's shares have fallen 10% from a peak reached two months ago, amid concerns over heavy AI capital spending and a rotation out of consumer tech stocks. The article points to strong results: net sales rose 20% in the latest quarter, the strongest year-over-year jump since 2021, while Amazon Web Services revenue surged 37% in the second quarter and AWS now makes up a fifth of revenue but three-fifths of operating profit. North American e-commerce sales rose 16% in the latest quarter. The author notes the stock trades at less than 25 times next year's earnings and argues the pullback offers a discount on a company with a strong online retail moat and a fast-growing AWS.
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The article argues that government backing does not guarantee a stock’s price, since investors often bid up shares before the benefits materialize, a premium the author calls the “Washington premium.” It cites Intel Corp. (INTC), where an agreement with the Trump administration includes an $8.9 billion investment for a 9.9% passive stake with no board seat, and MP Materials Corp. (MP), whose Pentagon deal includes a 10-year price floor on neodymium-praseodymium products. The author stresses that such support does not answer normal business questions about execution, competitiveness, earnings and a sensible share price. The piece compares this with the 2008 rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, where existing common shareholders bore losses even though the government protected the mortgage market.
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