Diesel markets remain tight even as crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover, because refinery output in the Middle East and Russia is still constrained. The IEA says the shortage will extend into the middle of 2027, and inventories are unlikely to be rebuilt before the second half of 2027. Global diesel exports fell by 700,000 barrels per day in September from a year earlier, and the agency estimates diesel will account for 25% of the expected 2.6 million bpd drop in global oil demand this year. Diesel prices have eased from September's record above $200 a barrel but remain nearly double the price of crude and their pre-crisis levels. The IEA warns that record diesel costs are already affecting goods prices, incomes, economic activity and inflation, while Saxo Bank says extra crude exports cannot resolve the shortage.
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- Diesel crunch could persist into 2027 as supply disruptions bite
Record diesel prices are threatening to fuel inflation and weigh on economic growth, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. Supply disruptions in the Middle East and Russia cut their combined diesel exports by 1.3 million barrels per day in September, equal to about 4.5% of the IEA's forecast global diesel and gasoil demand this year. The IEA warned inventories keep eroding, so tightness could last into 2027, while diesel refining margins hit a record of almost $95 per barrel in September. IEA members have pledged 426 million barrels from emergency reserves, with about 100 million barrels still to be released. The Trump administration has told EU countries to draw down stocks or face a potential U.S. diesel export ban.
- Diesel crunch could persist into 2027 as supply disruptions bite
The IEA warns that record diesel prices threaten to fuel inflation and weigh on growth, as supply disruptions in the Middle East and Russia could keep global markets short into next year. In September, the Middle East and Russia lost a combined 1.3 million barrels per day of diesel exports, about 4.5% of forecast global diesel and gasoil demand this year. Diesel refining margins hit record highs near $95 per barrel in September, while inventories continue to be drawn down. The agency expects the market to return to surplus around 2027, but warns that recent attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and tanker traffic could derail recovery. IEA members have pledged 426 million barrels from emergency reserves, with about 100 million barrels yet to be released.
- Diesel crunch could persist into 2027 as supply disruptions bite
The International Energy Agency says record diesel prices are threatening to fuel inflation and weigh on growth, as supply disruptions in the Middle East and Russia cut their combined diesel exports by 1.3 million barrels per day in September, about 4.5% of forecast global diesel and gasoil demand this year. Diesel refining margins hit a record of almost $95 per barrel in September as refining capacity was reduced. The IEA expects the gasoil market to be in deficit in the third and fourth quarters and to stay tight through the first half of 2027 before easing. IEA members have pledged 426 million barrels from emergency reserves, with about 100 million barrels still to be released. The agency warns oil markets may face more turmoil unless conflicts in the Middle East are resolved.
- Diesel crunch could persist into 2027 as supply disruptions bite
- Diesel crunch could persist into 2027 as supply disruptions bite
- IEA warns tight diesel supplies could stretch well into 2027
The IEA warned that record diesel prices are weighing on inflation and economic growth, and that supply shortages could persist into 2027. In September, the Middle East and Russia together lost 1.3 million barrels per day of diesel exports, equal to about 4.5% of forecast global diesel and gasoil demand this year. Inventories keep falling, and the late-year refinery recovery will not fully offset the deficit, with the gasoil market expected to be in deficit in Q3 and Q4 2026 before returning to surplus in Q1 2027. Diesel refining margins hit a record of almost $95 per barrel in September. By the end of September, 331 million barrels of emergency stocks had been released, with about 100 million still to go, and the agency warned that attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and tankers could derail the recovery.
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