The IEA warned that record diesel prices are weighing on inflation and economic growth, and that supply shortages could persist into 2027. In September, the Middle East and Russia together lost 1.3 million barrels per day of diesel exports, equal to about 4.5% of forecast global diesel and gasoil demand this year. Inventories keep falling, and the late-year refinery recovery will not fully offset the deficit, with the gasoil market expected to be in deficit in Q3 and Q4 2026 before returning to surplus in Q1 2027. Diesel refining margins hit a record of almost $95 per barrel in September. By the end of September, 331 million barrels of emergency stocks had been released, with about 100 million still to go, and the agency warned that attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and tankers could derail the recovery.
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