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- Halloween gets pricier as chocolate costs climb — Hershey may feel the pinch
Americans expect to spend $13.5 billion on Halloween this year, up from last year's record $13.1 billion, according to the National Retail Federation, even as shoppers weigh affordability. Candy and chocolate prices are rising faster than broader food inflation: candy and chewing gum prices were up 7.7% in September from a year earlier, and Halloween chocolate dollar sales fell 7.2% through the nine weeks ended Oct. 17, per NIQ. Wells Fargo estimates chocolate prices will be about 8% higher than last Halloween, as much of the chocolate on shelves was made with cocoa bought six to 12 months earlier and falling cocoa prices have yet to reach stores. Hershey lowered its 2026 organic sales growth forecast to 3% from 3%-3.5%, and Jefferies analyst Scott Marks sees flattish organic growth in the fourth quarter.
- Will Hershey's Halloween Week Earnings Trick or Treat Investors?
The Hershey Company is due to report third-quarter earnings on October 29, a quarter that includes much of its Halloween shipments, so results will likely reflect consumers' reaction to candy prices. In the second quarter, net sales rose 6.6% to $2.79 billion and adjusted EPS jumped 57% to $1.90, driven mainly by price increases and lower cocoa costs, though volume fell about 8%. Hershey raised its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $8.36–$8.52, while the author flags risks from weaker volumes, tariffs and El Niño's possible impact on cocoa. Shares have fallen about 12% over the past year and trade at a forward P/E near 17, and the author sees the stock as fairly priced and is cautiously bullish.
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