JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta says regulatory approval in China, rather than Tesla shareholder opposition, is the biggest obstacle to a SpaceX-Tesla merger, and the bank has sketched a TikTok-style structural workaround. Special committees have been formed at both Tesla and SpaceX to explore a combination, and JPMorgan's deal math centers on a 30-35% premium to Tesla's current market cap, which would keep Musk above 50% voting control; his TSLA voting stake was lifted to about 20% in June 2026. SpaceX is valued at about $2.0 trillion, up roughly 10% since its IPO, which Gupta calls high-value acquisition currency for an all-stock bid. China accounts for about 20% of Tesla's revenue and a higher share of its EBIT and free cash flow, but only about 10% of the bank's roughly $1.7 trillion sum-of-the-parts valuation, and Starlink has never received operating approval in China.
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Keywords
mergers and acquisitionsTSLASpaceXElon Musk
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Related tickers and likely impact
TSLA
• NeutralTesla, Inc.
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary |
| Industry | Automobile Manufacturers |
| Market cap | $1.4T |
| Close on 10/20/2026 | 373.77 |
| Change that session | +1.55% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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