ICE Mortgage Technology data shows about 150,000 borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) face their first rate adjustment this year, about 64,000 of them between August and December, with another 186,000 facing it in 2027. Because rates have climbed since many of these loans were taken out, monthly payments may rise by hundreds of dollars and in some cases more than $1,000, though a small share could see their payments fall. There are 3.1 million outstanding ARMs, the largest volume in 5.5 years, making up just 5.6% of roughly 55.4 million active U.S. mortgages. For example, seven-year ARMs originated in 2019 that reset this year have a median initial rate of 3%, and at a median adjusted rate of 6.06% their payment would jump by a median $1,080. Borrowers who want to stay can either keep their current loan or refinance into a fixed-rate mortgage, and lenders must notify them 210 to 240 days before the first adjusted payment is due.
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