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- Hard choices ahead for Reserve Bank : deputy governor
Traders raised bets on a November rate hike after RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser said the board was considering further increases, even though this would hurt activity and unemployment. Odds for a Melbourne Cup day hike had lengthened after softer September jobs data, but Hauser said the November meeting remained live and the bank faced 'hard choices'. He said a growing share of businesses saw inflation of around 3.5 per cent as the new normal, a scenario the central bank cannot accept, and that much of the oil price rise had yet to be passed on. Inflation data for the September quarter, due October 28, will be pivotal, while economists said the jobless rate rising to 4.7 per cent eased pressure to hike again.
- Hard choices ahead for Reserve Bank : deputy governor
Traders have raised their expectations of a November rate hike after RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser said the board is considering raising rates further, even though this would hit the economy and unemployment. Hauser described hard choices between tackling worsening inflation and protecting a softening labour market, warning that higher inflation expectations are becoming embedded as the Middle East supply shock drags on. He said an increasing share of businesses see inflation around 3.5 per cent as the new normal, which he called the central banker's nightmare. September-quarter inflation data due on October 28 will be pivotal, with underlying inflation set to be higher than the RBA assumed in August and many businesses yet to pass on oil price rises. Economists said the jobless rate rising to 4.7 per cent eased pressure to hike again, though Hauser argued unemployment remains relatively low by international and historical standards.
- Appointment of Chief Risk Officer
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has appointed Rachael Phelan as its Chief Risk Officer, to lead the Risk function and deliver the Bank's risk strategy. Phelan has more than 20 years of executive leadership experience in Australia and internationally across risk, strategy, operations and transformation, including governance, enterprise risk management, regulatory change and organisational transformation. Most recently she held leadership roles at NAB, including Chief Operating Officer for the Business and Private Bank, where she led major transformation initiatives, and Chief Risk Officer for the Personal Bank and uBank. She will start in the role on 18 January 2027.
- Australian Private Sector Business Activity Stalls in October
Australian private sector business activity stalled in October, hitting its lowest level since March as interest rates kept rising and global shocks intensified. The S&P Global flash Australia PMI composite output index fell to 47.7 from 51.3 in September. Jingyi Pan of S&P Global attributed the downturn to higher prices and rising rates, and said business confidence had taken a hit from economic uncertainty. The Reserve Bank of Australia warned that the inflation outlook has become materially worse; after four rate hikes since the start of the year, with inflation well above its target of around 2.5%, markets are speculating on another increase in November. Despite the slowdown, input and output price inflation both rose faster, while service firms hired more staff after shedding jobs at the end of the third quarter.
- Markets weigh RBA interest rate raise on Melbourne Cup Day after Andrew Hauser inflation warning
Financial markets are beginning to price in the possibility that Australian interest rates will rise above 5% early next year, after the central bank issued an inflation warning this week. The Australian dollar hit a three-week high of US70.28 cents on Thursday, up 1% in just four days, while three-year bond yields rose 10 basis points to 4.94% as traders rapidly repriced expectations ahead of the RBA's next policy meeting.
- Why five - year - high unemployment wont stop another RBA rate hike
Markets see a November RBA rate hike as close to a coin toss, even though official figures released a week ago showed unemployment hitting a five-year high of 4.7%. The RBA has a full-employment mandate, and unemployment is running well above its forecasts, which may signal a faster-than-expected weakening in the jobs market. In theory, that should help bring inflation back to target without the need for higher interest rates.
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