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Related tickers and likely impact
GBP/USD
• NeutralRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/20/2026 | 1.33800 |
| Change that session | +0.57% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- UK Inflation Rises After Bank of England Divided September Hold
UK inflation accelerated in September, with CPI rising 3.5% over the year, up from 3.1% in August and above the 3.4% median estimate in a Reuters poll, the Office for National Statistics said. Prices rose 0.4% over the month, with transport costs led by motor fuels contributing most to the annual increase. Core CPI rose to 2.8% from 2.6%, and services inflation to 3.7% from 3.4%. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in a split vote: six Monetary Policy Committee members voted to hold, while three favored raising it to 4%. A Danske Research forecast, which is not a Bank of England decision, now includes a November increase, and the Bank's next rate decision is scheduled for Nov. 5.
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The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates welfare spending could rise by an extra £5.5bn in 2027, exceeding the Treasury's budget assumptions by £2.2bn, after inflation accelerated to 3.5% in September from 3.1% in August. September's inflation rate sets the uprating of many working-age benefits and the state pension from the following April. The rise adds pressure on Chancellor John Healey's first Budget next Wednesday, as he balances support for households, borrowing and the risk of tax increases. Conservatives Helen Whately and Kemi Badenoch blamed Labour's policies and urged welfare cuts, with Badenoch citing welfare spending of about £160bn this year, while the Department for Work and Pensions said it is reforming the system and investing a record £3.5bn in employment support, with final figures to follow an annual review.
- UK inflation rises to 3.5% as fuel costs put pressure on households and businesses - ATV Today
UK inflation rose to 3.5%, with motor fuel the largest upward contributor according to the Office for National Statistics' latest CPI figures. Wealth Club's Susannah Streeter said the numbers were higher than expected and reflected fallout from the Middle East conflict, with services inflation up from 3.4% to 3.7% and core inflation from 2.6% to 2.8%. The data could complicate the Bank of England's push back toward its 2% target as markets increasingly price in rate rises, though falling job vacancies and cautious hiring could limit wage pressures. Motoring group FairFuelUK called for a fuel duty cut and a freeze for the rest of the parliamentary term, while investment experts warned persistent energy costs could keep inflation elevated into 2027. The Government also faces fiscal pressure, with September borrowing at £24.5 billion, above the £23.9 billion expected and the Office for Budget Responsibility's £22.5 billion March forecast.
- MUFG Forecasts U . K . Inflation Above 4 % if January Energy Cap Rises
MUFG expects U.K. inflation to exceed 4% in early 2027 if the January household energy price cap rises as forecast, adding pressure before the Bank of England's November rate decision. The Office for National Statistics said CPI rose 3.5% year on year in September from 3.1% in August, driven mainly by motor fuel prices, while core inflation reached 2.8% and services inflation 3.7%. MUFG economists expect a 0.25-percentage-point rate hike in November and another in early 2027, after the Bank kept Bank Rate at 3.75% in September with three members favoring an increase. Ofgem said its Oct. 1–Dec. 31 cap raised costs 4% for a typical default-tariff household, linked to higher wholesale gas prices tied to the Middle East conflict. Other data were mixed, with GDP up 0.7% over the three months to August and payrolls 66,000 below a year earlier.
- UK Faces Christmas Interest Rate - Hike Double Whammy Amid Inflation Surge
Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, expects the Bank of England to raise rates twice before Christmas as inflation spreads from petrol into services. UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September from 3.1% in August, above the 3.4% economists expected and marking a third straight monthly rise. Motor fuel prices climbed 29.8% year on year, while services inflation reached 3.7% and core inflation 2.8%, both beating forecasts. With UK inflation now above France (3.4%) and Germany (3.3%), real wages have stalled and unemployment is around 5%, so households face higher mortgage costs on top of energy bills.
- Cost of living crisis deepens as fuel price surge pushes United Kingdom inflation to 10-month high of 3.5%
UK annual inflation rose to 3.5% in September from 3.1% in August, above analysts' expectations of 3.4% and reaching a 10-month high, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The main driver was transport and motor fuel costs, with average diesel prices at their highest since July 2022 amid soaring petrol and diesel prices linked to the US-Iran war. Transport prices rose 6.6% year-on-year, up from 4.6% in August, while services inflation accelerated to 3.7% and core CPI rose to 2.8% from 2.6%. The reading comes a week before the Labour government's 28 October budget and could complicate Bank of England efforts, as the bank is widely expected to consider a rate hike at its 5 November meeting, potentially its first since 2023.
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