The Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF (VUG) trades near $90, up about 10% this year and roughly 3% below its October 6 record close of $92.64. The fund has averaged about 18% annual returns, including reinvested dividends, over the past decade, but now trades at about 37 times the earnings of its holdings. Its top 10 holdings make up about 63% of assets, led by Nvidia at 12.6%, Apple at 11.7% and Alphabet at 10.3%, while the stocks have grown earnings about 32% a year over the past five years. The author forecasts earnings growth of about 15% a year and a P/E ratio falling to 30, which would take a $10,000 investment to roughly $15,000 by December 31, 2030, before dividends; if earnings grow 12% and the P/E drops to 28, the figure would be about $12,500.
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