The IMF projects global growth will quicken to 3.4% in 2027 from an estimated 3.1% this year, with the US doing better than expected and China holding at 4%, while France faces dimmer prospects amid a bond selloff. Despite the Iran war, higher interest rates and an energy price spike, growth has held up, helped by an AI-driven investment boom, though this resilience has limits. Several advanced economies have little fiscal room left, and bond markets are skeptical of their budget paths, so central banks may again have to carry the burden in a future downturn. The Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates again after a move last month, and the ECB, India and Australia have also sounded hawkish. Singapore's President Tharman Shanmugaratnam argued that the bond market turmoil gives leaders a chance to fix public finances before a crisis forces their hand.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on bworldonline.com ↗
Related news
- A new race for the road - BusinessWorld Online
Sales of vehicles from brands under CAMPI and TMA fell 11.4% year on year to 204,557 units in the first half of 2026, while electrified vehicles surged: BEVs rose 256.8%, PHEVs 3,356.9%, and HEVs 57.5%. According to PwC, electrified vehicles accounted for about 16% of passenger vehicle sales in the Philippines in H1 2026, more than double a year earlier, as rising fuel costs boost their appeal. Executive Order No. 121 establishes a P60-billion EV incentive program for manufacturers committing at least P5 billion in investments, and the Department of Energy targets at least 311,700 electric public utility vehicles by 2028. Chinese automakers are challenging established Japanese brands with competitively priced vehicles and EV lineups. A McKinsey survey found 32% of respondents planned to postpone their next purchase due to financial constraints.
- Financial reform is necessary , but not sufficient - BusinessWorld Online
The Philippines will adopt an international pricing convention for peso-denominated government bonds from January 4, 2027, and these bonds are scheduled to enter J.P. Morgan's GBI-EM index later that month, which could broaden the investor base and improve liquidity. The author argues these reforms are welcome but not sufficient, since businesses also need competitive electricity, reliable infrastructure, efficient logistics and predictable regulation to make investment profitable. Index inclusion does not guarantee lower yields, and foreign investment in existing bonds differs from investment in new factories, so the payoff depends on how public funds are spent and governed. The OECD noted that outstanding corporate bonds were only about 11% of GDP at end-2023, leaving smaller firms reliant on bank loans. The piece calls for lower issuance costs, simpler procedures, better credit information and stronger disclosure without weakening investor protection.
- Financial reform is necessary , but not sufficient - BusinessWorld Online
The Philippines will adopt an international pricing convention for peso-denominated government bonds from Jan. 4, 2027, and these bonds are scheduled to enter J.P. Morgan's GBI-EM index later that month, which could broaden the investor base and improve liquidity. The author welcomes these reforms but argues that a more sophisticated financial system alone will not create factories, exports or jobs, since businesses also need competitive electricity, infrastructure, logistics and predictable policy. Index inclusion does not guarantee lower yields, and the benefits of cheaper borrowing depend on how well public investment is selected and governed. The bigger gap is in corporate capital markets: according to an OECD 2024 review, outstanding corporate bonds were about 11% of GDP at end-2023, leaving smaller firms reliant on bank loans. The author calls for lower issuance costs, simpler procedures, better credit information and stronger disclosure without weakening investor protection.
- Global economy continues to grow despite Iran war | Peak Oil News and Message Boards
According to BOFIT, the global economy has kept growing faster than forecasters expected despite the Iran war and energy supply disruptions, as countries used alternative oil routes and drew down national inventories. AI investment, especially in the US and in chip-exporting East Asian economies such as Taiwan, South Korea and China, has also supported growth. The IMF this week slightly raised its global growth forecast to 3.1 percent, and the IMF, OECD and ADB all expect China to grow around 4.5 percent this year. Russia's outlook has been revised down, with BOFIT forecasting about 1 percent this year and half a percent next year. Most risks are on the downside, particularly if the Middle East crisis depletes energy inventories or demand for AI computing capacity fades.
- Oil Market : Skyrocketing Tanker Rates Suggest Energy Costs Wont Fall Soon
Oil prices have eased from wartime peaks, with Brent trading around $105 a barrel this week, but a transportation crisis is keeping energy costs elevated. VLCC tanker rates have more than quadrupled in a year, from about $50,000 a day in late 2025 to over $200,000 a day in October, while the cost of shipping oil from the Persian Gulf to the Far East has risen from under $2 to over $30 per barrel year to date. Diesel is near a record at around $6.29 a gallon, and HFI Research estimates the world has lost around 20 oil tankers in the last two weeks. Gulf crude exports reached about 81% of pre-war levels in September, but energy inflation accelerated 5.2% over the month. RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft says transport costs add $35-40 per barrel, while HFI Research sees Brent reaching $133-135 by early November if the escalation continues.
- Global banana business bruised as Iran war pressures producers | The Arkansas Democrat - Gazette
Related markets
Latest news
- Meta Earnings: What To Look For From META
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) will report earnings this Wednesday after the market closes. Last quarter, revenue reached $60.8 billion, up 28% year on year and above analysts' expectations, though revenue guidance for next quarter slightly missed forecasts; daily active users hit 3.6 billion, up 3.4%. The market expects revenue growth of 23.6% this quarter, slowing from 26.2% a year earlier, and analysts have generally reconfirmed their estimates over the past 30 days. Over the last month, consumer internet stocks have gained 1.3% on average, while Meta is down 4.8%.
- An AI bust could come from places investors arent watching , an economist says
Concerns about an AI bubble are growing, and TS Lombard's Dario Perkins warns that investors may be overlooking other risks. Debt among smaller cloud providers, model developers and suppliers could reach $2 trillion by the end of 2027. Perkins does not see this as a systemic risk, but warns that earnings disappointments and canceled orders could ripple through the ecosystem, and that a chip glut could follow over-ordering. Much of the industry's revenue growth still comes from spending within the AI ecosystem rather than from businesses and consumers outside it. He also flags political backlash, noting that ordinary people dislike AI and nearby datacenters, and warns that one high-profile accident could turn AI toxic.
- Yen jumps after JGB auction draws big demand , euro finds relief
The yen rose 0.2% to 158.15 per dollar in Asian trading after a 20-year Japanese government bond auction drew bids of 5.84 times the amount sold, well above the 4.01 times at the previous auction, and the yield fell 6 basis points to 3.71%. A State Street strategist said the record demand suggests sidelined cash is returning and that JGBs are becoming a relative haven from political and fiscal volatility in Europe, particularly France. Anti-government protests in France prompted curfews in several cities, while Italy said it would send 500 troops after two days of unrest, and the euro rallied 0.2% to $1.1234. Elsewhere, bitcoin slipped 0.3% to $81,674.25 and ether edged down 0.2% to $2,393.21.
- Unemployment rate dips to 4 . 7 % - but vacancies hit five - year low
Vacancies fell by 21,000 to 691,000 in the three months to September, the biggest drop since the three months to March and the lowest since July to September 2014 outside the pandemic, while unemployment dipped in the three months to August. Payroll numbers were down 66,000 over the year to September. The ONS said the fall was mainly among smaller firms struggling with higher labour costs, following rises in employer national insurance, the minimum wage and workers' rights. A CBI survey found labour costs and regulations were making it harder to create jobs, and firms urged the Chancellor not to add to their burden in the October 28 Budget. ICAEW's Suren Thiru said the labour market is 'running on idle' and unemployment could climb above 5 per cent, while Shadow Chancellor Andrew Griffith blamed Labour's 'Jobs Tax' and red tape.
- CNBC Daily Open: Tech rebounds in the U.S., but Asia isn’t buying it yet
U.S. tech stocks rebounded as the Nasdaq Composite rose more than 1% on Monday, with Nvidia up 1.4% and Tesla up 3.8%. In Asia, however, tech shares fell on Tuesday, with South Korea's Kospi down over 4% and Japan's Nikkei 225 down 1.6%. Nvidia also unveiled plans to back four German AI startups as part of its nearly $10 billion European investment commitment. Jenny Lee of Granite Asia said Asian companies are reaching IPOs much sooner, often at four to five years old, while Jio Platforms' Indian IPO saw its anchor investor quota oversubscribed more than 30 times, aiming to raise up to 302 billion rupees ($3.2 billion). In Singapore, several agricultural stocks fell after Senior Minister K Shanmugam warned that companies would not escape responsibility for possible roles in the haze, noting seven firms had been questioned by the Singapore Exchange.
- NiSource (NI) Stock Looks Overvalued Against Its Dividend Outlook
NiSource has nearly doubled shareholders' money over the past five years, delivering a 97.6% total return, which raises the question of whether dividends can justify the current share price. The article highlights a new 20-year energy agreement with Microsoft, including customer-funded grid upgrades and long-term electric service for data centers, which may affect future capital needs and cash-flow visibility. Using a Dividend Discount Model with inputs of about $1.35 dividend per share, roughly 9.07% return on equity, a payout ratio slightly above 61%, and implied dividend growth of about 3.5%, the estimated intrinsic value sits meaningfully below the current share price of $41.95. The model still does not bridge that gap, suggesting income investors are paying a premium for a relatively steady payout with modest assumed growth.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.