IBM shares returned 17.4% from September 30 to October 29, 2026, against 1.0% for the S&P 500, though holders were still down 15.2% over the year. A Trefis scenario assuming 8.5% annual revenue growth for three years would lift the shares about 18.8% before dividends, and the article stresses this is arithmetic rather than a forecast. Growth has depended heavily on software, which provided $2.9 billion of the $4.7 billion increase in fiscal 2025 revenue, while third-quarter 2026 reported revenue rose 4.7%, below the scenario's pace. The scenario would return nothing if revenue grew 2.5% a year, or if year-three net margin fell to 12.5% from 16.0% over the past twelve months, and IBM's diluted share count rose 3.2% over three years. The number to watch is revenue growth in the fourth-quarter report, expected in January 2027.
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