Nebius Group shares rose from US$83.7 at the start of the year to US$153, and investors who held from the start of the year are up 70.4% including dividends. The bullish view saw the Microsoft contract and large AI infrastructure deals as a springboard, with a fair value of US$97.4, while the bearish view, with a fair value of US$75, stressed rising capex, regulation and margin pressure. Q2 2026 revenue reached US$582.3 million versus US$105.1 million a year earlier, but the net loss of US$190.4 million challenged the path to profitability. The article suggests investors track both contract wins and the direction of net income, not just revenue growth. The selected narrative's fair value sits below the current price, suggesting recent enthusiasm may already reflect demanding expectations.
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