NOAA raised its odds that the 2026 El Niño will break every record since 1950 to 75% in its September 10 update, up from 69%, with eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface anomalies already above +3.0°C. Colombia's 2026 coffee crop is forecast at 12.5 million bags, down 8% from 13.7 million in 2025, and the National Federation of Coffee Growers says El Niño, not the magnitude 7.4 earthquake on August 10, is the main threat. Bank of America ranks Colombia the most inflation-vulnerable economy in the region, with inflation potentially rising by up to 1.8 percentage points under a severe El Niño, as the peso touched 3,205 per dollar. In Argentina, about 10 million tons of wheat, roughly 35% of the projected harvest, could face flood risk in vulnerable zones, though El Niño is seen as broadly positive for the season due to higher rainfall.
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- Food inflation risks rise as war and El Niño strain supplies
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FAO chief economist Maximo Torero warned that global food inflation is poised to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Niño-driven drought squeeze cereal supplies. Rice prices in Indonesia hit record highs, bread in Egypt rose by a quarter, and sugar in India reached a record after the weakest monsoon in more than a decade. The World Bank found that food prices in the September quarter outpaced headline inflation in 22% of the 150 countries it analysed, up from 14% in the previous quarter. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest since November 2022, and the world's poorest consumers are being hit hardest.
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Global food inflation is likely to accelerate in the coming months and could last well into 2027, driven by two supply shocks. War-related shipping disruptions are slowing deliveries, while El Niño drought is hurting harvests and squeezing cereal supplies. Vulnerable consumers face even more pressure because food takes up a large share of their income. Early signs are already visible: Indonesia's rice price is at a record high due to late rains, Egypt's bread price has risen 25%, and India's sugar price is the highest ever after its weakest monsoon in more than ten years cut output. The article argues these cases share one problem: staple-food systems are highly sensitive to climate shocks and supply-chain stress.
- Global food inflation is expected to intensify as supply shocks pile up
Global food inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Nino-driven drought squeeze cereal supplies. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest since November 2022, and the World Bank found food prices rose faster than headline inflation in 22% of 150 countries in the September quarter, up from 14% previously. Wheat prices are up more than 30% in 2026, rice prices in key Asian exporters have risen 10% to 13%, and Indonesia's rice prices have hit record highs. The poorest consumers in low- and middle-income countries are hit hardest, raising the risk of social unrest and export bans, and freight rates on some key routes have risen about 50%.
- Global food inflation expected to intensify , persist into 2027
Global food prices are expected to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Niño-driven drought strain cereal supplies. Rice prices in Indonesia have hit record highs, bread in Egypt has risen by a quarter, and sugar prices in India reached an all-time high. According to the World Bank, food prices in the September quarter outpaced headline inflation in 22 per cent of the 150 countries it analyzed, up from 14 per cent in the previous quarter. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest reading since November 2022. Analysts warn that record grain stocks are thinning and a surge in import demand could follow, raising the risk of social unrest and export bans.
- Global food prices set to climb as shipping shocks squeeze supplies
Global food prices are expected to accelerate in the coming months and stay high into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Nino-driven drought squeeze cereal supplies. Rice prices in Indonesia have hit record highs, bread costs in Egypt have risen sharply, and sugar prices in India reached an all-time high. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest since November 2022. The World Bank found food prices in the latest quarter outpaced headline inflation in 22% of 150 countries analysed, up from 14% previously, hitting the poorest consumers hardest.
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