Global food inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Nino-driven drought squeeze cereal supplies. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest since November 2022, and the World Bank found food prices rose faster than headline inflation in 22% of 150 countries in the September quarter, up from 14% previously. Wheat prices are up more than 30% in 2026, rice prices in key Asian exporters have risen 10% to 13%, and Indonesia's rice prices have hit record highs. The poorest consumers in low- and middle-income countries are hit hardest, raising the risk of social unrest and export bans, and freight rates on some key routes have risen about 50%.
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- Global food inflation is expected to intensify as supply shocks pile up
Global food inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Nino drought squeeze cereal supplies. Rice prices in Indonesia have hit record highs, bread in Egypt has risen by a quarter, and sugar in India reached an all-time high. The World Bank found food prices in the September quarter outpaced headline inflation in 22% of the 150 countries it analysed, up from 14% previously. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest reading since November 2022. Rising prices heighten the risk of social unrest and could prompt key exporters to impose export bans.
- Global food inflation expected to intensify as supply shocks mount
FAO chief economist Maximo Torero warned that global food inflation is poised to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Niño-driven drought squeeze cereal supplies. Rice prices in Indonesia hit record highs, bread in Egypt rose by a quarter, and sugar in India reached a record after the weakest monsoon in more than a decade. The World Bank found that food prices in the September quarter outpaced headline inflation in 22% of the 150 countries it analysed, up from 14% in the previous quarter. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest since November 2022, and the world's poorest consumers are being hit hardest.
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Global food inflation is likely to accelerate in the coming months and could last well into 2027, driven by two supply shocks. War-related shipping disruptions are slowing deliveries, while El Niño drought is hurting harvests and squeezing cereal supplies. Vulnerable consumers face even more pressure because food takes up a large share of their income. Early signs are already visible: Indonesia's rice price is at a record high due to late rains, Egypt's bread price has risen 25%, and India's sugar price is the highest ever after its weakest monsoon in more than ten years cut output. The article argues these cases share one problem: staple-food systems are highly sensitive to climate shocks and supply-chain stress.
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