Deutsche Bank Research says superintelligent AI could outperform human experts across nearly every cognitive task by 2030, reshaping business competition and the global economy. Analysts Adrian Cox and Azeem Azhar describe a scenario of recursive self-improvement, in which advanced models run directly on smartphones, tablets and laptops and sharply cut the cost of software development, research, legal work and engineering. AI costs have nearly halved every quarter over the past three years at comparable performance, a roughly thirteenfold annual decline. The analysts warn that physical infrastructure, regulation and organisational resistance could slow adoption, and that Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle are expected to spend nearly $800 billion on capex in 2026, potentially above $1 trillion a year through 2030.
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