Markets widely expect the Bank of Canada to raise its key rate at its decision on Wednesday, with bond swap markets placing the odds of a 25-basis-point hike at 78%, after Governor Tiff Macklem voiced growing concern about higher inflation. If it happens, variable mortgage rates are likely to follow; the cheapest five-year variable rate on Ratehub.ca was 3.45% as of Thursday afternoon. Variable rates have been stable since the last change, a 25-basis-point cut in October 2025, and the policy rate has been 2.25% since then. Fixed rates have also climbed with bond yields, with the cheapest five-year fixed rate just under 4.5%, up from 3.84% in January. Some economists caution against a hike: David-Alexandre Brassard of CPA Canada said Canada has lost roughly 110,000 jobs this fall, wage growth is slowing and housing remains weak.
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Related tickers and likely impact
USD/CAD
▼ Likely negativeRelevance: medium
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 1.40091 |
| Change that session | -0.28% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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