Despite headwinds such as more than $40 trillion in U.S. debt and loan delinquencies at their highest since 2010, the S&P 500 was up 14% in 2026 as of October 13. A bear market is a drop of 20% or more, and the article argues that panic selling during downturns can be costly, since 48% of the S&P 500's best days from 1996 through 2025 occurred during bear markets, according to Hartford Funds. A $10,000 investment in 1996 would have grown to $192,167 by the end of 2025, but missing the 10 best days would have reduced that to $85,490, and missing the 30 best days to $31,123. Instead of trying to time the market, it suggests holding high-conviction stocks that investors are comfortable buying more of if prices fall, echoing Warren Buffett's advice that one should not own a stock for ten minutes unless willing to own it for ten years.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on aol.com ↗
Related news
- You Can't Outrun a Bear Market, but Successful Investors Don't Have to Because They Follow This Playbook Instead
The S&P 500 is up 14% in 2026 as of Oct. 13, but inflation remains stubborn, U.S. families falling behind on loan payments are at their highest since 2010, and U.S. debt exceeds $40 trillion, keeping bear market fears alive. The article argues that panic selling can be costly, since 48% of the S&P 500's best days from 1996 through 2025 came during bear markets, according to Hartford Funds. A $10,000 investment in 1996 would have grown to $192,167 by the end of 2025, but missing the 10 best days would have cut that to $85,490, and missing the 30 best days would have left just $31,123. Instead of selling, the article recommends holding high-conviction stocks that investors are comfortable buying more of if prices fall, and cites Warren Buffett's advice that one should not own a stock for ten minutes unless willing to own it for ten years.
- Warren Buffett Isnt Worried About Bear Markets , and You Shouldnt Be , Either . Here Why .
The article argues that investors should not fear bear markets, citing Warren Buffett, who has invested through all market environments and beaten the market over time. During six decades as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, he achieved a compounded annual increase of almost 20%, compared with about 10% for the S&P 500 over that period. During the 2008 financial crisis, Buffett wrote in The New York Times that bad news is an investor's best friend because it lets you buy a slice of America's future at a marked-down price. The article adds that the S&P 500 has historically rebounded after downturns and climbed significantly over the long run, so buying during declines and holding for years can be a sound plan.
- Investors Fled US Equity Funds in September . Here Where They Put Their Money Instead
Long-term US funds took in less than $27 billion in September, their lowest since April 2025, ending a five-month streak of inflows above $100 billion. Taxable-bond funds gathered $37 billion, with ultrashort bond funds drawing $21 billion, the second-largest figure in history, while high-yield and corporate bond funds lost $5 billion and $4 billion. The 10-year Treasury yield closed September at 5.29%, its highest since 2002, while long government funds still attracted $5 billion. US equity funds lost $32 billion, their largest outflow since January, while international-equity funds added $2 billion in September, bringing the quarter to $9 billion, their sixth straight positive quarter. In municipal bonds, investors put nearly $14 billion into ETFs, a record, and pulled $11 billion from open-end funds.
- The S&P 500 Is Expecting Something Extraordinary. History Says Investors Should Be Careful What They Wish For.
According to LSEG, S&P 500 earnings are forecast to grow 31% year over year in the third quarter, driven mainly by tech and semiconductors, with energy also contributing. The forward P/E has dipped slightly to 21, suggesting the recent rally has been fueled by earnings growth rather than higher valuations. The author warns that if this growth is already priced in, a downside surprise could trigger a 10% correction, though not necessarily a crash. Comparing with earnings booms in 2000, 2004, 2010 and 2021, the article notes that roughly two-thirds of growth comes from AI-adjacent tech firms, while energy gains are tied to oil prices lifted by the Iran war. It suggests keeping core holdings such as VOO and VTI and reviewing overall tech sector exposure.
- The S&P 500 Is Expecting Something Extraordinary. History Says Investors Should Be Careful What They Wish For.
LSEG forecasts S&P 500 earnings to grow 31% year over year in the third quarter, driven mainly by tech and semiconductors, with energy also contributing. The forward P/E has eased slightly to 21, so the recent rally has been fueled by earnings growth rather than multiple expansion. The article argues much of this good news may already be priced in, so an earnings shortfall could trigger a 10% correction, the first in about a year and a half. It compares today’s AI-driven boom with 2021, 2010, 2004 and 2000, when growth above 30% in 2000 preceded the collapse of the tech bubble. About two-thirds of expected growth comes from AI-adjacent tech firms, and energy’s boost depends on oil prices tied to the Iran war, making the growth vulnerable to reversal.
- Big Banks Prepare to Report Earnings as They Face Skeptical Investors
Related markets
Latest news
- Is Nvidia Stock Really Trading for Just 8 Times 2030 Earnings?
Nvidia is the market's most valuable company, with a market cap above $5 trillion. It trades at 27 times adjusted trailing earnings, but only about 8 times analysts' estimate for fiscal 2030 earnings, a figure the author stresses is a moving target. Revenue growth accelerated from 56% in Q2 FY 2026 to 106% in Q2 FY 2027, though guidance points to a slight slowdown in the current quarter. The stock trades at 13 times next year's earnings, and the board recently authorized a record $150 billion in share repurchases. The author also acknowledges risks such as slower growth or contracting net margins.
- US Orders Civilian Agencies to Rip DeepSeek Out of Government Systems
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security on Monday ordered civilian federal agencies to remove DeepSeek products and third-party services built on the model from their IT systems, and to stop buying them. The notice warns that using DeepSeek may transfer sensitive data to China and could produce intelligence on U.S. persons and agencies. The Commerce Department, the Navy, and the states of New York, Tennessee and Virginia had already restricted DeepSeek. The FCC votes on October 29 on barring Chinese labs from testing electronics for U.S. use.
- Tesla-SpaceX merger is 'not so easy': Analyst
Speculation about a possible merger between SpaceX (SPCX) and Tesla (TSLA) has grown on Wall Street in recent weeks. RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan says it would not be simple: SpaceX would have to acquire Tesla, likely in an all-stock deal, and would need to pay a strong premium. He sets a $480 price target for Tesla, while the shares trade near $367. The longer-term focus may be Terafab, Elon Musk's chip initiative aimed at cutting production costs by up to 90% and bypassing Nvidia and TSMC. Musk currently controls 85% of SpaceX's voting rights and 20% of Tesla's.
- Is Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Priced Right?
Chip stocks fell sharply last week, and Nvidia (NVDA) dropped nearly 2% as investors worried that heavily indebted AI companies would face higher borrowing costs after bond yields jumped for CoreWeave, a cloud company Nvidia backs. CoreWeave shares had fallen more than 15% the day before. Nvidia's own numbers show no sign of that stress: it sold $96.2 billion of chips and systems in the quarter ended July, up 106% from a year earlier, mostly from data center sales. Its net profit margin was 63.66% over the past 12 months, and management expects $108.0 billion in revenue next quarter, assuming no data center sales to China. The key risk is whether customers can keep paying for chips if interest rates stay high, and the planned partnerships to bring over $500 billion of outside capital into AI infrastructure have not yet become definitive agreements.
- Networking Stocks Rally as Tech Rebound Lifts AI Gear Makers: Ciena and Arista Climb 4%, but Cisco Barely Moves
Networking stocks rallied with the tech rebound as suppliers of AI data center gear drew buying: Ciena (CIEN) rose 4% to $347.48 and Arista Networks (ANET) climbed 4% to $183.32, well ahead of the iShares U.S. Technology ETF (IYW) at 1.29% and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) at 1.31%, while Cisco (CSCO) was practically unchanged at $107.06. Ciena's fiscal Q3 2026 adjusted EPS was $2.11 against a $1.73 consensus, with revenue up 37% year over year to $1.67 billion, and it raised fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $6.42 billion. Its backlog reached $8.5 billion, but supply remains the limit, and management does not expect the market to return to balance before 2028. Two customers made up 41.7% of Q3 revenue, so Ciena's growth is concentrated. The next test is whether Ciena can hit its fiscal Q4 2026 revenue guidance of $1.75 billion under tight component supply.
- Gartner Predicts “80% of Neoclouds” Out of Business by 2030: Here’s Who Wins
Gartner forecast on October 14 that more than 80% of neoclouds will stop operating independently by 2030, and CoreWeave (CRWV) fell 25% last week. The article argues that hyperscalers funding AI capacity from their own cash flow, led by Amazon and Alphabet, are likely winners as credit tightens for indebted neoclouds. Amazon generated $140 billion of operating cash flow in fiscal 2025, more than covering $132 billion of capex, while CoreWeave's total debt reached $29.8 billion. Since their July 29 closing low, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon are up 15.6%, compared with 1.6% for IREN, CoreWeave and Nebius. Hyperscaler earnings in the coming weeks will need to show whether sold-out capacity is turning into results.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.