Novo Nordisk stock jumped on Wednesday after the Danish drugmaker raised its guidance, citing strong uptake of its weight-loss pill launched earlier this year.
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- Novo raises full-year outlook as Wegovy pill sales impress
Danish weight-loss drug maker Novo reported third-quarter results ahead of expectations early Wednesday, as sales of its Wegovy pill far exceeded estimates after a turbulent year in which it fell behind rival Eli Lilly. Third-quarter sales reached 79.2 billion Danish kroner ($11.9 billion), up 4% year on year and above FactSet estimates of 73.6 billion kroner. Adjusted operating profit (EBIT) came in at 31.7 billion kroner, versus an expected 28.6 billion kroner. The company now expects adjusted revenue and operating profit growth of between negative 2% and 2% at constant exchange rates, up from its previous outlook of negative 6% to flat.
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Novo Nordisk shares have fallen roughly 70% from their 2024 high and now sit below their mid-2021 level, leaving a P/E of about 10x versus a five-year average of nearly 24x. The article attributes the slump to Eli Lilly's more effective GLP-1 drugs and Novo's supply shortfalls, which let generics enter the U.S. market early. Novo is shifting toward a high-volume, low-cost model, a change that is weighing on current results but could be offset if demand meets expectations. The company has launched a $2.2 billion share repurchase program and offers a 4.6% yield with a 33% payout ratio. The article argues the market may be overly pessimistic, though the transition will take time.
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Novo's shares have dropped more than 60% over the past couple of years as it lost market share in GLP-1 products such as Wegovy, Ozempic, and Rybelsus to Eli Lilly. Its 2030 goals include more than five products each generating several billion dollars in annual sales, revenue growth comparable to industry peers, serving 10 times as many obese patients with oral GLP-1 products, and reaching more than 60 million patients, up from over 45.6 million last year. Candidates such as CagriSema, awaiting approval after beating Wegovy in a head-to-head Phase 3 obesity study, and zenagamtide, in Phase 3 trials, are seen as having blockbuster potential. The author judges Novo fairly well-positioned to reach these goals, helped by licensed candidates such as UBT251 and HRS-1596, while the stock trades at about 12x forward earnings versus an average of 19.2x for healthcare stocks, though clinical setbacks remain a risk.
- Where Will Novo Stock Be in 10 Years?
Novo, a Denmark-based pharmaceutical company, reached an all-time high in 2024 but has since faced clinical and commercial setbacks and lost substantial market value over the past two years. Its diabetes products, including Ozempic and Rybelsus, and its obesity drug Wegovy remain core, but U.S. patents on the active ingredient in these drugs expire in 2032, potentially opening the door to cheaper generics. Near-term catalysts include CagriSema, which could be approved by year-end and combines semaglutide with cagrilintide, though it fell short of the 25% mean weight loss Novo had hoped for. The pipeline also includes amycretin, UBT251, and several oral weight loss candidates. The author sees the pipeline as deep but warns of rising competition from dozens of weight-loss drugs, slower market growth, and possible U.S. drug price negotiations.
- Novo's CagriSema Delivered 25% Weight Loss in Women. Could It Help Turn Around the Beaten-Down Stock?
Novo Nordisk presented a post hoc analysis of a Phase 3 CagriSema trial at The Menopause Society meeting: after 68 weeks, 2,309 women lost almost 25% of body weight on average, versus 3% on placebo. Among 1,902 women with menopause-related overweight or obesity, mean loss ranged from 23% to nearly 27%, while placebo averaged 2%. These results beat or match Wegovy (just under 15%) and Zepbound (nearly 21%), though in the head-to-head Redefine 4 trial, tirzepatide, Zepbound's molecule, showed similar or slightly higher efficacy, nearly 26% at the maximum dose. The author argues CagriSema is unlikely to win back market share from Eli Lilly, so investors should watch Novo's other pipeline programs, and notes the figures assume patients use the drug as directed.
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