Eli Lilly (LLY) hit a record high on Friday, with market value around $1.1 trillion, level with Berkshire Hathaway, after third-quarter sales rose 39% and the company raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $91-$92 billion from $85-$87 billion. Macro investor Jordi Visser argues Lilly will become the world's most valuable company, as its growth comes from healthcare spending that recurs every year, while Nvidia is more exposed to disruption. The article notes that passing Nvidia, which was worth $4.9 trillion, would require Lilly's value to rise far beyond its current level and would require Nvidia's earnings estimates to break down. Lilly trades at about 34x forward earnings, below its five-year average of 40x, though tirzepatide (sold as Mounjaro and Zepbound) made up 65% of its revenue in the first half of 2026, and generic makers have filed to sell copies of both in July.
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| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
| Market cap | $5.1T |
| Close on 11/02/2026 | 202.06 |
| Change that session | -1.26% |
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Eli Lilly reported third-quarter revenue up 39% year over year to $24.4 billion, driven mainly by GLP-1 drugs: Mounjaro rose 65% to $10.7 billion and Zepbound rose 49% to $5.4 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $7.48, up 7%, held back by acquisition-related expenses, but both revenue and earnings beat analyst estimates. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $91 billion to $92 billion from $85 billion to $87 billion, and its shares jumped after the report. The article argues the GLP-1 market still has room to expand given low penetration, and views Lilly's pipeline, including retatrutide, as among the strongest in the field, while noting pricing pressure and competition from new medicines over the medium term.
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Eli Lilly's Foundayo, an oral GLP-1 weight-loss medicine approved in the U.S. in April, is drawing new patients, with 80% of its prescriptions earlier this year going to people who had never taken a GLP-1 medicine before. The company's Onswik, a once-weekly basal insulin for diabetes approved in September, could strengthen its diabetes portfolio, though Novo Nordisk's Awiqli was approved first in March. The investigational retatrutide showed average weight loss of up to 28.3% over 80 weeks in one Phase 3 study, and Eli Lilly plans to submit it for regulatory approval in the first quarter of 2027. The article argues these drugs could power Eli Lilly's next phase of growth beyond Zepbound.
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A mouse study funded by the NIH found that semaglutide, made by Novo Nordisk and sold as Ozempic and Wegovy, extended the lifespan of older, healthy mice by tempering aging effects, with treated mice showing better muscle and cognitive function. The author assumes that tirzepatide, Eli Lilly's main GLP-1 drug, could show similar effects, though results in humans remain a long way off. Gallup data cited in the article show that US adult use of GLP-1 weight-loss injectables has nearly quadrupled since 2024, reaching 11% this year from 3% two years ago. J.P. Morgan expects about 25 million Americans to be on GLP-1 treatment by 2030, and Morgan Stanley forecasts the market will more than double from 2025 to 2035, to $190 billion.
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