The author, who lived through the dot-com boom and bust, points to a cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio of 41, a level exceeded only during the dot-com boom, as a sign the market is vulnerable to a meaningful downturn. Micron reported 379% revenue growth in its latest quarter and $37.7 billion in net income, but memory chip prices are highly cyclical, and the stock trades at a P/E of 12 amid fears of a sharp sell-off. Nvidia posted 106% revenue growth and $59.7 billion in net income, with a market cap above $5 trillion, but the author sees parallels with Cisco in 2000, which traded at a P/E of 241 before a $2.25 billion write-down in 2001. Nvidia's P/E of 26 is far lower and it holds a software moat, so the author expects an AI bust would more likely be a growth disruption, with the main risk being customers it finances going bankrupt.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
Keywords
valuationNvidiaMicronsemiconductors
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
NVDA
• NeutralNvidia
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
| Market cap | $5.1T |
| Close on 10/30/2026 | 204.81 |
| Change that session | -4.14% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Nvidia vs. Micron: The AI Revolution Is Big Enough for Both. Here's the Better Buy.
The article compares Nvidia, maker of the logic chips that power AI models, with Micron, which supplies the memory and storage used in AI training and use. Over the past five years Nvidia has risen more than 800%, while Micron has climbed 1,200%. Nvidia leads the AI chip market, with its latest revenue up 106% to $96 billion and net income up 126% to $59 billion. The author sees Micron benefiting from agentic AI, with its latest quarterly revenue up more than 370%, but notes memory is cyclical and could face pressure once supply normalizes. The author concludes Nvidia is the better pick, citing its broad AI exposure and less cyclical revenue.
- This Week In AI Chips - Advancing AI Network Management Through Enhanced GigaSMART Technology
Gigamon has enhanced its Deep Observability Pipeline with distributed GigaSMART processing to support AI-enabled network and security operations, including the new GigaVUE-GSA110 appliance. The aim is to give enterprises better visibility across hybrid cloud environments as they adopt hybrid AI architectures. In market news, King Yuan Electronics rose 7.1% to close at NT$278.00, while Tower Semiconductor fell 8.2% to $183.78. Broadcom finished flat at $334.37, NVIDIA slipped 0.3% to $216.47, and Micron Technology dropped 1% to $896.07. Micron also held a special call on Monday to discuss DRAM, HBM and NAND innovations.
- Meet the New Nasdaq-100 Stock That’s Crushing Nvidia, Micron, and Sandisk. Is It Too Late to Buy?
- I Just Bought Micron Stock. Here's Why
The author has just bought Micron (MU) shares after the stock rose about 230% so far in 2026, making it the fourth-best performer in the S&P 500. The article says Micron is reducing its cyclicality through floor and ceiling price deals with clients, with take-or-pay agreements locking in an estimated 35% of revenue through 2030. A partnership with Nvidia on an industry-first custom memory chip for its GPUs is also seen as reshaping a key relationship. Management expects supply conditions to worsen further in 2027 and 2028, as significant new capacity arrives only from mid-2027 into 2028, and some clients have signed deals through 2031. The author will monitor memory chip market conditions closely and exit the stock if they deteriorate.
- Here's What $6,000 Invested in Micron Could Be Worth in 2028
Micron's stock is up more than 200% this year as AI-driven memory demand surges, and the company has secured 16 strategic customer agreements running three to five years. Diluted EPS was over $74 in fiscal 2026, and S&P Global Market Intelligence consensus projects over $172 for fiscal 2027 and over $212 for fiscal 2029. If the current 5.65x forward earnings multiple is held, the stock would trade around $1,197 in 2028, about 23% upside, turning a $6,000 investment into $7,380. A 10x forward multiple would imply about $2,120 per share, in line with D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria's view that investors are early in understanding Micron's value, or roughly $12,940 for a $6,000 investment. The author questions how sustainable these earnings are given concerns over a new Chinese memory chip and expected heavy supply in 2029, and says owning some stock is fine while cautioning against a heavy position given its volatility.
- Why Micron Stock Looks Cheap After a Record Year
Micron, which makes memory chips for PCs and AI servers, posted a record fiscal 2026 with revenue of $133 billion and adjusted earnings of $75.52 per share, up from $8.29 a year earlier. Yet the stock closed on Oct. 28 about 13% below its earnings-day close, trading at a forward P/E of about 5.5 versus about 19 for the S&P 500. Micron has signed 26 long-term strategic customer agreements covering over 35% of expected revenue through 2030, backed by $32 billion in customer financial commitments. Adjusted free cash flow reached $62 billion for the full year, while capital spending of about $27 billion in fiscal 2026 and about $25 billion planned for the first half of fiscal 2027 will fund new supply. The article says DRAM prices and days of inventory are the two metrics to watch: if prices keep climbing and inventory days fall as management expects, the stock could keep surging next year; if inventory keeps rising while prices stall, that signals excess supply.
Related markets
Latest news
- Duong Cong Minh Appointed Legal Representative of SACOMBANK
SACOMBANK (ticker STB) has announced senior management changes under three Board of Directors resolutions dated 2/11/2026. From that date, Board Chairman Duong Cong Minh also serves as legal representative, while General Director Loic Faussier steps down and becomes senior advisor to the Board. Deputy General Director Nguyen Thi Kieu Anh was appointed Acting General Director to ensure operations are not interrupted. Under the Charter, the bank has one legal representative, either the Board Chairman or the General Director, and the article says this arrangement is consistent with that mechanism. Faussier, born in 1972, joined SACOMBANK on 27/3/2026 and was officially appointed General Director on 10/7/2026 after the State Bank of Vietnam approved it.
- Palantir’s Q3 Report To Test Stock Defensiveness Amid AI Panic — What Analysts Are Expecting
Palantir (PLTR) will report third-quarter results after the market closes on Monday, with its AI durability in focus as investors pulled back from AI-linked stocks in October. PLTR fell 1.5% over the month, less than the nearly 7% drop in the Invesco QQQ Trust. Analysts expect third-quarter revenue to rise 85% to $2.18 billion and adjusted EPS to rise 94% to $0.41 per share. Oppenheimer raised its price target to $235 from $200 while keeping an 'Outperform' rating, and JP Morgan initiated coverage with an 'Overweight' rating and a $262 price target. Per Koyfin, 21 of 32 analysts rate the stock 'Buy' or higher, and the average price target of $212.50 implies 15% upside from the last close, while Stocktwits retail sentiment remains 'bearish', unchanged from last week.
- EU Commissioner “Pressures” a European Country: Joining the Bloc Requires Sanctions on Russia
EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said Serbia would need to impose sanctions on Russia to eventually join the EU, adding that membership would likely be impossible without strategic alignment on foreign and security policy, especially over Ukraine. Her remarks came days after the opposition Student List movement won 52.5% of the vote in snap parliamentary elections, defeating former president Aleksandar Vucic, and Kos noted that EU negotiations with the new government have not yet begun. Movement figures have not clearly stated their position on Russia sanctions, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow hopes to maintain mutually beneficial ties with Serbia. The EU has adopted 22 sanctions packages against Russia since February 2022.
- Is Alphabet's Massive AI Spending a Problem? The CFO Just Revealed Everything Investors Need to Know in a Single Sentence.
Alphabet is spending more cash than it generates: capital expenditures reached $51.4 billion last quarter, mostly for AI compute, and could keep rising in the fourth quarter and in 2027. The company raised $40 billion last quarter alone, fueling investor worries about overextension, and shares fell after its third-quarter earnings release. CFO Anat Ashkenazi said Alphabet expects ROIC to stay meaningfully above its cost of capital throughout the investment cycle, supported by its vertically integrated AI stack. Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian said server spending (about 65% of capex) pays back in under two years, and TPU systems in half that time, compared with nearly three years for Amazon. Analysts' average forecast sees free cash flow rising from about $50 billion to more than $300 billion by 2031, though it may drop more sharply in 2027.
- Individuals and household businesses with revenue under 10 billion VND get good news from now on
Decree 398/2026/NĐ-CP sets out detailed rules for Resolution 43/2026/QH16 on reducing personal income tax and corporate income tax for individuals and enterprises, taking effect on 29/10/2026 and applying to the 2026 and 2027 tax years. Resident individuals running production or business activities with annual revenue of no more than 10 billion VND can cut 30% of the personal income tax payable on that business income, covering individuals who register household businesses or authorized household business representatives, regardless of the tax calculation method. Revenue is determined under Decree 68/2026/NĐ-CP, as amended by Decree 141/2026/NĐ-CP. Businesses expecting revenue within the threshold declare the reduction using Form No. 01 with their quarterly, half-year or annual tax filings; if they have not declared it, they may file amended or supplementary returns or claim it at annual tax finalization. The decree also covers the 30% reduction for withholding, substitute filing and payment agents for household businesses.
- Afternoon Technical Analysis 02/11: Outlook Continues to Deteriorate
VN-Index fell for a third straight session and formed an Inverted Hammer pattern, signaling that selling pressure persists; the index remains below the Bollinger Bands middle band, while the Stochastic Oscillator keeps declining and MACD is narrowing its gap with the signal line. The HNX-Index also dropped for three consecutive sessions, tracking the Bollinger Bands lower band and trading below the 61.8% Fibonacci Projection level (roughly the 253–258 point zone), while a Death Cross formed between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs. The analysis uses real-time data as of the close of the morning session on 02/11/2026, is for reference only, and may change when the afternoon session ends.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.