Netflix, the world's largest premium video streaming service with more than 300 million paying subscribers, trades at 19 times trailing earnings and 16.5 times next year's expected profit, while the S&P 500 trades at 25 times and 18 times. The stock has fallen 54% from its all-time high in June of last year, revenue growth has slowed for three straight quarters, and shares initially fell after each of the last six earnings reports, alongside layoffs. The author notes the stock fell roughly 80% in the 2011 and 2022 downturns before rebounding more than fivefold, while analysts still expect low-double-digit revenue growth. The author calculates that the stock trades below 14 times earnings for 2028 and 12 times for 2029, respectively. The author, a longtime shareholder, argues the discount to the S&P 500 is not warranted.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
Keywords
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related news
- Prediction: $5,000 Invested in Netflix Will Be Worth This Much by 2030
Netflix shares have fallen to 52-week lows, back to 2024 levels, after the company failed to acquire the former Warner Bros. Discovery and struggled to develop content that interests viewers. A $5,000 investment made four years ago would be worth about $10,560 today, though it exceeded $22,500 in mid-2025 as Netflix's competitive advantages eroded. Analysts expect revenue growth of 13% this year and 11% in 2027, while the current 18 P/E is near a five-year low, compared with a five-year peak of 63 and an S&P 500 average of 26.5. The author estimates Netflix could trade around $139 per share in 2030, which would make the roughly 80 shares that $5,000 buys today worth about $11,100; these are assumption-based estimates, not certainties.
- 3 Unstoppable S&P 500 Stocks to Buy in November
The article highlights three S&P 500 stocks trading below previous highs: Netflix (NFLX) is down 52%, TJX (TJX) is down roughly 15% from its 52-week high, and DoorDash (DASH) is down 41% from its 2025 high. Netflix's revenue growth has slowed for four straight quarters, from nearly 18% in Q4 2025 to about 12% in Q3 2026, though its forward P/E of 17.7x is below the S&P 500's 19.2. TJX posted a 4% rise in second-quarter comparable sales and 11% adjusted EPS growth, with a forward P/E of 26. DoorDash's second-quarter revenue rose 24% to $4.5 billion, and its forward P/E of 29 compares with roughly 44% annualized earnings growth analysts expect. The article argues these factors could support market-beating returns.
- Can Netflix Stock Bounce Off The Current Support?
Netflix (NFLX) shares have lost 44.3% over the past year, versus an 11.5% return for the S&P 500, and trade at $62.34, near a level where they reversed course twice in 2024. The article notes that a $10,000 investment would grow to about $12,460 if the stock returned to overhead resistance at $77.65, far less than the roughly $20,870 a typical 2024 bounce from this price would have produced. Operating margin reached 31.3% over the twelve months to September 2026, up from 29.1% a year earlier, but revenue growth slowed from 16.2% in fiscal Q1 to 11.8% in fiscal Q3 2026, and the 2026 ad revenue forecast was cut to $2.7 billion. A drop below support at $59.22 would leave a continued growth slowdown as the main risk, with fiscal Q4 2026 results a key indicator to watch when the company reports in January 2027.
- Stock Market Today, Oct. 20: Netflix Q3 Revenue Rises 12% on Pricing Power
Netflix closed at $68.66, down 1.70%, ahead of its after-close Q3 report, and was down 5.1% in after-hours trading as of 4:31 p.m. ET. Q3 revenue rose 12% year over year to $12.9 billion, and diluted EPS climbed from $0.59 to $0.87. Netflix outperformed every metric for which it provides quarterly guidance, with larger profit surprises than revenue surprises, but its fourth-quarter guidance looked muted, with slower sales growth and lower profit from seasonal effects and impairment costs tied to recently announced job cuts. That day, the S&P 500 closed at 7,711 (up 0.26%) and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,425 (down 0.02%).
- What Has The Market Missed In Netflix Stock's Drop?
Netflix (NFLX) shares have fallen 41.4% over the past twelve months, while the S&P 500 returned 16.2%, even as management plans for content spending to grow more slowly than sales. Management guided to full-year 2026 sales growth of 13% to 14% and expects content expense to rise about 10%. The operating margin reached 29.7% over the twelve months to June 2026, though most of the gain came by June 2025. Reuters reported on July 16, 2026 that the 12% revenue growth forecast for fiscal Q3 fell short of Wall Street targets, down from 13.4% in fiscal Q2. Operating profit rose about 17% to $14.4 billion over the twelve months to June 2026, slightly faster than revenue growth of 16.0%.
- Prediction: Netflix Will Become the Coca-Cola of Streaming
The article predicts Netflix (NFLX) will become the “Coca-Cola” of streaming, a dependable company like Coca-Cola (KO). As of Oct. 30, NFLX stock was down about 53% from its all-time high and had a negative 7% return over the past five years, while the Nasdaq Composite was up 63%. The author argues that although Netflix is posting all-time high revenue and earnings, its hypergrowth days are over, as it stopped reporting subscriber numbers in 2025 and now focuses on revenue, earnings, free cash flow and engagement. Netflix received a $2.8 billion termination fee after Skydance outbid it for Warner Bros. Discovery, and it raised prices for the third time in less than three years, with the U.S. premium plan at $26.99 per month. The piece compares this to Coca-Cola's earlier fear of Starbucks, arguing that Netflix mainly competes with other studios that produce, license and distribute films and shows rather than with all of media.
Related markets
Latest news
- Elon Musk’s Tesla and SpaceX Block Their Stock From OKX-ICE Tokenized Venue
Six more companies, including Amazon, Tesla, SpaceX, Netflix, Lam Research and SoFi Technologies, have objected to OKXICE TSV trading their shares, according to an updated notice dated Nov. 2. The total has risen to 56, from nine on Oct. 15 and 50 in the Oct. 30 notice. Under the SEC's innovation exemption, a timely written objection bars the venue from listing a third-party tokenized version of that stock, though the objection applies only to that venue. Apple is one of the few megacap names still not on the list, and the venue can still list shares that issuers tokenize themselves.
- Elon Musk’s Tesla and SpaceX Block Their Stock From OKX-ICE Tokenized Venue
Six more companies, including Amazon, Tesla, SpaceX, Netflix, Lam Research and SoFi Technologies, have objected to OKXICE TSV trading their shares, according to an updated notice dated Nov. 2. The total has risen to 56, from nine on Oct. 15 and 50 in the Oct. 30 notice. Under the SEC's innovation exemption, a timely written objection bars the venue from listing a third-party tokenized version of that stock, though the objection applies only to that venue. Apple is one of the few megacap names still not on the list, and the venue can still list shares that issuers tokenize themselves.
- AMD and Sandisk Both Suffered Massive Price Swings But Sandisk is Absolutely Riskier
Sandisk fell 37.49% and AMD dropped 26.36% over the past month despite strong earnings. Sandisk's fiscal Q1 2027 revenue reached $11.03B, up 377.9% year over year, largely driven by higher pricing, while AMD's revenue rose 50.1% to $11.54B, with Data Center making up 58% of the total. The author argues Sandisk carries more risk because it sells a single NAND product through a joint venture with Kioxia, its margins could reverse quickly, and consumer revenue fell 29% sequentially. AMD's broader product mix and multi-gigawatt AI deals are seen as easier to absorb a downturn, though its P/E near 176 leaves little room for error.
- Nvidia Is Extremely Compelling Right Now And Here’s Why
NVIDIA shares fell 13.63% over the past month to $202.06, even though revenue roughly doubled. Q2 fiscal 2027 revenue reached $96.22B, up 105.8% year over year, with non-GAAP EPS of $2.22 versus the $2.09 consensus, and Q3 revenue is guided to $108.0B, plus or minus 2%. The author says the stock trades at about 22 times the fiscal 2027 EPS consensus of $9.3124 and about 13 times the fiscal 2028 consensus of $15.9146, and that analysts made 7 upward revisions and no downward ones in 30 days. Risks include $279B of supply obligations, days sales outstanding rising to 60 from 45, and Q3 guidance that assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China. The author says they will continue accumulating on dips while estimates rise.
- Investors Are Beginning to Say That Meta Is The Best Buy And Hold Stock Through 2030
Meta shares fell 16.67% over the past month to $606.73, as a $9.89B settlement with 52 state attorneys general over teen mental health claims pulled GAAP EPS to $3.83 against a $5.70 consensus; without the charge, EPS would have been $7.40. Revenue rose 26.1% to $64.60B, with ad impressions up 10% and average price per ad up 14%. Meta plans $135B to $145B in 2026 capex, third-quarter free cash flow turned negative at $2.12B, and operating margin fell to 20% from 40%. The average analyst target is $848.38, implying 39.8% upside. The author argues the long-term case through 2030 depends on ad growth and Muse, which signed up more than 10 million users in about a month and a half.
- Here's the 1 Thing I'd Wait to See Before Buying Plug Power Stock
The author remains bearish on Plug Power (PLUG), though his view has softened somewhat due to improving financials and a management change, and he still finds buying the stock unlikely for now. Plug grew sales at a 21.3% compound annual growth rate from 2015 through 2025, but its operating cash flow has been negative for a decade. In the first half of 2026, Plug reported negative $244 million in operating cash flow, while Bloom Energy (BE) reported $300 million in operating cash flow. Its outstanding share count rose from over 180 million in March 2016 to about 1.4 billion by February 2026, diluting shareholders. The author says the third-quarter 2026 results could change his view, but argues that without organic cash generation the stock is not a sound investment.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.