Novo Nordisk is regaining momentum as its Wegovy pill sells faster than expected, lifting the company's outlook. This gives the Danish drugmaker a credible path back into an obesity market that Eli Lilly has claimed for itself over the past two years.
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Original headline: Novo’s Comeback Gets a Pill-Shaped Boost as Wegovy Starts to Bite Back
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
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The article projects the value of investing $100 per month in Eli Lilly (LLY) stock through late 2030, about four years. Assuming annual growth of 25%, a more conservative figure than growth above 30%, the $4,800 invested could be worth close to $8,000, a gain of roughly 67%. Growth is driven by GLP-1 weight-loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, with Morgan Stanley forecasting the global GLP-1 market could more than double between 2025 and 2035 to $190 billion, though competition from Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy exists. The article notes Lilly's price-to-sales ratio of 14.4 is above its five-year average of 13.3, while its P/E of 43 is below the five-year average of 58, and says a pullback is possible.
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Novo Nordisk presented a post hoc analysis of a Phase 3 CagriSema trial at The Menopause Society meeting: after 68 weeks, 2,309 women lost almost 25% of body weight on average, versus 3% on placebo. Among 1,902 women with menopause-related overweight or obesity, mean loss ranged from 23% to nearly 27%, while placebo averaged 2%. These results beat or match Wegovy (just under 15%) and Zepbound (nearly 21%), though in the head-to-head Redefine 4 trial, tirzepatide, Zepbound's molecule, showed similar or slightly higher efficacy, nearly 26% at the maximum dose. The author argues CagriSema is unlikely to win back market share from Eli Lilly, so investors should watch Novo's other pipeline programs, and notes the figures assume patients use the drug as directed.
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A mouse study funded by the NIH found that semaglutide, made by Novo Nordisk and sold as Ozempic and Wegovy, extended the lifespan of older, healthy mice by tempering aging effects, with treated mice showing better muscle and cognitive function. The author assumes that tirzepatide, Eli Lilly's main GLP-1 drug, could show similar effects, though results in humans remain a long way off. Gallup data cited in the article show that US adult use of GLP-1 weight-loss injectables has nearly quadrupled since 2024, reaching 11% this year from 3% two years ago. J.P. Morgan expects about 25 million Americans to be on GLP-1 treatment by 2030, and Morgan Stanley forecasts the market will more than double from 2025 to 2035, to $190 billion.
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Novo's shares have fallen more than 60% after losing GLP-1 market share to Eli Lilly, and the stock trades at 11.8x forward earnings versus an 18.6x average for healthcare stocks. The article cites clinical setbacks, including CagriSema missing a 25% mean weight-loss target and losing a head-to-head trial to Zepbound, plus a failed Phase 3 study of ziltivekimab. Second-quarter net sales rose 2% to 78.5 billion Danish kroner, and adjusted earnings per share rose 5% to 6.18 DKK. Oral Wegovy has helped widen the market, and the pipeline includes zenagamtide, which showed up to 24.3% mean weight loss over 36 weeks in an early study. The author concludes Novo is not a once-in-a-decade buy, though it could deliver solid returns over the medium term.
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Novo Nordisk stock jumped on Wednesday after the Danish drugmaker raised its guidance, citing strong uptake of its weight-loss pill launched earlier this year.
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Danish weight-loss drug maker Novo reported third-quarter results ahead of expectations early Wednesday, as sales of its Wegovy pill far exceeded estimates after a turbulent year in which it fell behind rival Eli Lilly. Third-quarter sales reached 79.2 billion Danish kroner ($11.9 billion), up 4% year on year and above FactSet estimates of 73.6 billion kroner. Adjusted operating profit (EBIT) came in at 31.7 billion kroner, versus an expected 28.6 billion kroner. The company now expects adjusted revenue and operating profit growth of between negative 2% and 2% at constant exchange rates, up from its previous outlook of negative 6% to flat.
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