GE Vernova (GEV) shares are up 48% over the past year. The author argues the run can continue, citing strong orders and earnings momentum in the third quarter. The core power segment earns long-term service revenue after gas turbine equipment is sold, so the author suggests tracking backlog and heavy-duty HA turbine orders. CEO Scott Strazik said the 130 HA turbines running today produced $1 billion of the power segment's $24 billion current run rate of revenue, and the company expects more than 400 running by the end of next year. Backlog reached $197 billion in the third quarter, new gas equipment orders totaled 11 GW, and there were 21 HA turbine orders.
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- GE Vernova's $176 Billion Backlog, Explained
GE Vernova's remaining performance obligations (backlog) rose from $116 billion in 2023 to $176 billion at the end of the second quarter, with the power and electrification segments accounting for 111% of the increase, offset by a decline in the loss-making wind segment. CEO Scott Strazik said the $200 billion milestone should be hit very early in 2027, and the S&P Global Market Intelligence consensus calls for a $303 billion backlog in 2030. The article highlights long-term service agreements and aftermarket revenue tied to gas turbines and electrical equipment, along with margin improvement across all three segments. Slot reservation agreements, where customers pay upfront, are boosting cash flow, with 116 gigawatts under contract including 63 GW in SRAs, which are not counted in backlog. The next earnings presentation is due October 28.
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GE Vernova reported third-quarter orders of $29.3B, up 96% organically, with backlog rising to $197B, and raised its 2026 guidance. Third-quarter gas turbine orders were priced more than 20% above fourth-quarter 2025 orders, lifting Power's EBITDA margin to 21.4%, and management expects at least 130 gigawatts under contract by year-end, up from 83 gigawatts at the start of the year. Free cash flow guidance rose to $16B-$17B from $11.5B-$12.5B, and the buyback authorization doubled to $20B. On the other side, Electrification orders fell 9% organically, Wind is guided to an EBITDA loss of $400-$500M, and the $9 billion Trench Group deal requires roughly $4.5 billion of new debt. The stock fell 1.83% on the day and 7.43% over the past month, and the average analyst target of $1,223.97 across 37 analysts implies about 39.3% upside.
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- GE Vernova shares slip despite a beat-and-raise. What the sellers are getting wrong
GE Vernova shares fell on Wednesday despite the gas turbine maker beating expectations and raising its full-year outlook. Third-quarter revenue rose about 27% to $12.64 billion, above the $11.99 billion LSEG estimate, while EPS jumped 193% to $4.81 versus a consensus of $3.94. The company also agreed to buy Trench Group, a privately held maker of electric-grid equipment. The sell-off appears linked to guidance that fourth-quarter gas turbine pricing per kilowatt will be below third-quarter levels and to uneven quarterly growth in Gas Power in 2027, even as backlog rose from 116 GW to 122 GW and management expects 130 GW by year-end. The author argues the decline is too critical and does not reflect the company's underlying business strength.
- GE Vernova Stock Falls; 'New Orders And New Slots Missed By A Mile'
GE Vernova shares fell more than 2% Wednesday morning, though they pulled back from intraday lows and are still up 34% this year. Despite strong third-quarter results, with diluted earnings of $4.81 and revenue growth, the company reported weakness in new orders, which weighed on the stock.
- GE Vernova Falls 6% Despite Beat, Raise and $9B Trench Deal; Vertiv Holdings Soars 13%, Eaton and Quanta Services Tick Up
GE Vernova reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $12.64 billion, up 27% from a year earlier, and adjusted EPS of $4.81, both above Wall Street estimates. Orders reached $29.3 billion, up 96% organically, and backlog hit a record $197 billion, prompting the company to raise its 2026 free cash flow guidance to $16 billion to $17 billion and its revenue range to $46.5 billion to $47.5 billion. It also agreed to acquire Trench Group for $9 billion, which is projected to generate $1.9 billion in 2028 revenue, with closing not expected until late 2027. Despite the beat, GE Vernova shares fell 6% in the early session after rising 30% year to date, while Vertiv jumped 13% following its own beat and raised outlook. A more cautious reading holds that expectations were already high and the deal offers a distant payoff alongside added debt.
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