GE Vernova shares fell on Wednesday despite the gas turbine maker beating expectations and raising its full-year outlook. Third-quarter revenue rose about 27% to $12.64 billion, above the $11.99 billion LSEG estimate, while EPS jumped 193% to $4.81 versus a consensus of $3.94. The company also agreed to buy Trench Group, a privately held maker of electric-grid equipment. The sell-off appears linked to guidance that fourth-quarter gas turbine pricing per kilowatt will be below third-quarter levels and to uneven quarterly growth in Gas Power in 2027, even as backlog rose from 116 GW to 122 GW and management expects 130 GW by year-end. The author argues the decline is too critical and does not reflect the company's underlying business strength.
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GE Vernova reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $12.64 billion, up 27% from a year earlier, and adjusted EPS of $4.81, both above Wall Street estimates. Orders reached $29.3 billion, up 96% organically, and backlog hit a record $197 billion, prompting the company to raise its 2026 free cash flow guidance to $16 billion to $17 billion and its revenue range to $46.5 billion to $47.5 billion. It also agreed to acquire Trench Group for $9 billion, which is projected to generate $1.9 billion in 2028 revenue, with closing not expected until late 2027. Despite the beat, GE Vernova shares fell 6% in the early session after rising 30% year to date, while Vertiv jumped 13% following its own beat and raised outlook. A more cautious reading holds that expectations were already high and the deal offers a distant payoff alongside added debt.
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GE Vernova will report third-quarter results on October 28, and CEO Scott Strazik expects its backlog, $176 billion at the end of the second quarter, to reach $200 billion very early in 2027 on strong Q3 orders. The article stresses gigawatts in the gas power backlog, especially from H-class (HA) turbines, which generate significant long-term services revenue: 130 HA machines are running and 195 are on contract. If the company has at least 400 machines running or contracted by the end of next year, that adds about 200 GW, or roughly $100 billion in services revenue at $500 million per GW over 20 years. Gas equipment contracts were 21 GW in Q1 and 20 GW in Q2, while July guidance called for 20 GW in the second half, which Strazik said now looks conservative. The author suggests investors watch for second-half guidance of 20–40 GW, and says results nearer the higher end, driven by HA orders, could send the stock sharply higher.
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GE Vernova fell about 11% on Oct. 22 and traded near $825, about 30% below its $1,174.86 close on June 30, even as its backlog grew to $176 billion after the second quarter. The author expects the adjusted EBITDA margin to keep rising toward management's 20% target for 2028, and projects adjusted EBITDA of about $13.6 billion in 2030. Assuming the stock trades at about 19 times that EBITDA and the share count falls about 2% a year, the author estimates a value of around $1,100 a share by late 2030. That implies about a 7% annual gain, which the author considers modest for a growth stock that can fall 11% in a day. The author says he would be more interested if the price fell below about $740, where the same forecast would mean about 10% a year.
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