UBS analyst Joe Spak upgraded Rivian stock to Buy from Hold. The available content only reports this rating change, without further reasoning or specific figures.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Original headline: Rivian Stock Can Rise More Than 30%. The R2 Isn’t Just for ‘Tesla Switchers.’
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Lucid Group (LCID) rose 7.8% by 10:35 a.m. ET Monday without company-specific news, tracking a 10.4% gain in rival Rivian (RIVN) after UBS upgraded Rivian to buy, citing solid demand for its new R2 SUV and expected positive gross margins in Q1 2027. UBS also warned that Rivian will keep burning cash and will likely need to sell shares or take on debt to fund operations through at least 2029. The article argues Lucid is not Rivian: it still reports negative gross margins, burned $5.1 billion over the last 12 months, and had barely $760 million in cash at its last report. The author therefore cautions that even if UBS's view holds for Rivian, the same assumption should not be made for Lucid.
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UBS upgraded Rivian to Buy and kept its $17 price target, calling the 19% decline over the past month an opportunity ahead of the R2 ramp. The R2 became Rivian's best-selling vehicle in the third quarter, and management still expects it to reach positive gross margin by year-end, while Uber and its fleet partners are set to buy 10,000 units for robotaxis. However, Rivian's free cash flow was -$1.12 billion in the third quarter and its share count has risen 18% since the end of 2025, while its up-to-$4.5 billion Department of Energy loan requires positive gross margin before its first draw. The ramp also matters for Tesla and Lucid, with Rivian's revenue expected to nearly triple from $5.4 billion in 2025 by 2028.
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UBS upgraded Rivian to Buy from Neutral and kept its $17 price target, calling the recent selloff a buying opportunity ahead of an inflection in R2 ramp and automotive gross margins. Rivian shares rose 4% to $12.59 but are still down 36% year to date. Its Q3 2026 report, disclosed on October 29, showed revenue up 38.3% year over year to $2.155 billion and an adjusted loss of $0.48 per share narrower than expected, while full-year guidance was raised and deliveries are now seen at 67,000 to 70,000 vehicles. However, the automotive business still posted an $80 million gross loss, and $81 million in regulatory credits supported the quarter. Lucid, at $3.06, is down 71% YTD, while Tesla trades at $402.50.
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Rivian reported third-quarter revenue of $2.16 billion, up 38% year over year and above consensus near $1.99 billion, while its adjusted loss narrowed to $0.48 per share. The company raised its 2026 delivery outlook to 67,000–70,000 vehicles on strong demand for the R2 SUV and lowered its capital expenditure outlook to $1.4–$1.5 billion. Tesla expanded its robotaxi fleet in Texas to 1,051 authorized vehicles, with 544 Cybercabs now outnumbering 507 Model Ys. Ford said its sub-$30,000 Fathom midsize electric pickup remains on track for a late-2027 launch, while GM is preparing its Lansing plant for future hybrid versions of the Chevrolet Traverse, Buick Enclave and GMC Acadia. Over the week, RIVN rose 3%, TSLA 7%, GM 15% and F about 6%.
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