News about UBS

UBS expects Apple's September-quarter revenue of $112.8 billion, slightly below the $113.6 billion consensus, and diluted EPS of $1.97 versus $1.99 expected, ahead of the November 2 earnings report. It forecasts iPhone revenue of $56 billion, up about 14% year over year, a slowdown from 22% to 23% growth in each of the previous three quarters, and Services revenue of $31.6 billion, up 10%. Gross margin is seen at 47.5%, down from 50.1% in the June quarter, which had a larger tariff refund; excluding tariffs, the margin is estimated to have fallen about 70 basis points year over year, largely due to higher memory chip costs. UBS keeps a Neutral rating and $296 price target, and questions how long Apple's stock can sustain a rally of about 13% since late July.

UBS expects the euro to recover to $1.16 by the end of 2026, arguing that its slide from $1.17 to nearly $1.11 against the dollar has gone further than Europe's economy justifies and that markets are excessively pessimistic on Europe. The decline reflects stronger US economic data, worries about a possible US diesel export ban, rising global bond yields and concern over France's finances, with French spreads widening significantly. UBS does not expect a broader European debt crisis and sees a French budget deal as likely, which should narrow those spreads. Markets have almost fully priced out a US rate hike in October, making a sustained fall below $1.10 less likely, and UBS sees support at $1.10 and $1.08 with resistance at $1.13. A Democratic win of both the House and Senate in the midterms would likely be a modest negative for the dollar, a risk not reflected in market pricing.

UBS warns that shorter delivery times for Apple's latest iPhones could signal weaker demand and put revenue forecasts at risk, even though sales in key markets remain resilient. Average wait for the iPhone 18 Pro fell about four days year on year to around 11 days, versus 15 days for the iPhone 17 Pro and 16 Pro, while the Pro Max averaged about 19 days. Week-on-week declines of about 1 day for the Pro and 5 days for the Pro Max suggest limited room for estimates to rise, and UBS worries that Apple's price increases could push buyers to delay or choose cheaper models. The bank kept its iPhone forecasts unchanged but sees downside risks, projecting September-quarter revenue of $55.9 billion (up 14%) and 55 million shipments, below the consensus of 57.8 million. UBS retains a $296 price target, citing solid demand alongside gross margin pressure and supply-chain challenges.