Shopify closed at a record high of $179.22 per share, a 613% gain from its $25.13 low in 2022, but has since pulled back to about $151. The author believes the company's self-service commerce model is resilient, supported by an ecosystem that includes Shop Pay, Shopify Capital, Shopify Plus, POS systems and AI tools. Revenue grew at a 26% CAGR from 2021 to 2025, the company turned profitable in 2023, and analysts expect revenue and EPS to grow at 28% and 44% CAGRs from 2025 to 2028. The stock trades at 68 times next year's earnings, a premium the author says could be justified by market share gains in enterprise commerce and the high-margin Merchant Solutions segment. The article notes the stock could remain under pressure if inflation stays hot and interest rates stay elevated.
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