Micron (MU) shares fell 19.6% between October 5 and November 3, 2026, while the S&P 500 dropped 2.6%, even after the company reported a record fiscal fourth quarter. Net income for the twelve months to September 3, 2026 reached $85.0 billion, about ten times the $8.54 billion of the prior twelve months, with a 74.6% operating margin. At the November 3 close, buyers paid 11.4 times those trailing earnings, against 22.8 for the S&P 500. Management said market conditions should stay tight through 2028 and margins should widen over the rest of fiscal 2027, though at a slower pace, but the profits depend on prices still rising, and fiscal Q1 2027 guidance assumes only single-digit bit growth. Gross margin reached 86.8% in fiscal Q4 2026 versus 44.7% a year earlier, and the next quarterly report is expected in December 2026.
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- What Just Happened To Micron Stock?
Micron (MU) stock rose 272.9% over the year to November 2, 2026, versus 11.5% for the S&P 500, as demand for memory chips used in AI hardware drove fast sales growth. Fiscal Q4 2026 sales reached $54.2 billion, up from $11.3 billion a year earlier, and operating margin rose to 80.7% from 32.3%. Measured against earnings, the trailing P/E fell from 22.0 to 14.2 at the end of September 2026 and stood at 11.1 on November 2, versus 22.8 for the S&P 500, while the price-to-sales multiple rose from 5.0 to 9.0. The shares fell 22.4% over the month to November 2, and 5.8% on November 2 alone after a cautious forecast from Kioxia, having closed at a yearly high of $1,213.18 on June 25, 2026. Management expects margins to widen over the rest of fiscal 2027 and market conditions to stay tight through 2028, though these are forecasts, and the next report is expected in December 2026.
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Micron's stock is up more than 200% this year as AI-driven memory demand surges, and the company has secured 16 strategic customer agreements running three to five years. Diluted EPS was over $74 in fiscal 2026, and S&P Global Market Intelligence consensus projects over $172 for fiscal 2027 and over $212 for fiscal 2029. If the current 5.65x forward earnings multiple is held, the stock would trade around $1,197 in 2028, about 23% upside, turning a $6,000 investment into $7,380. A 10x forward multiple would imply about $2,120 per share, in line with D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria's view that investors are early in understanding Micron's value, or roughly $12,940 for a $6,000 investment. The author questions how sustainable these earnings are given concerns over a new Chinese memory chip and expected heavy supply in 2029, and says owning some stock is fine while cautioning against a heavy position given its volatility.
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Micron, which makes memory chips for PCs and AI servers, posted a record fiscal 2026 with revenue of $133 billion and adjusted earnings of $75.52 per share, up from $8.29 a year earlier. Yet the stock closed on Oct. 28 about 13% below its earnings-day close, trading at a forward P/E of about 5.5 versus about 19 for the S&P 500. Micron has signed 26 long-term strategic customer agreements covering over 35% of expected revenue through 2030, backed by $32 billion in customer financial commitments. Adjusted free cash flow reached $62 billion for the full year, while capital spending of about $27 billion in fiscal 2026 and about $25 billion planned for the first half of fiscal 2027 will fund new supply. The article says DRAM prices and days of inventory are the two metrics to watch: if prices keep climbing and inventory days fall as management expects, the stock could keep surging next year; if inventory keeps rising while prices stall, that signals excess supply.
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Micron shares are up 218% this year but have fallen 27% since hitting an all-time high in June, and the author views the recent dip as an opportunity for long-term investors. In fiscal Q4 2026, ended Sept. 3, revenue rose 379% year over year to $54.23 billion, GAAP gross margin reached 86.8% versus 44.7% a year earlier, and net income jumped 1077.8% to $37.7 billion. Guidance points to about $61.5 billion in revenue for fiscal Q1 2027 at the midpoint, up roughly 351%. The author notes some estimates see the memory chip shortage easing only around 2029, and considers the 5.05 forward P/E reasonable. Assuming EPS compounds at 12% a year over five years with the P/E unchanged, the cumulative return would be about 76%.
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