UPS shares have risen 9.4% since its strong third-quarter 2026 results were released on Oct. 27, when revenue grew roughly 7% and the company beat estimates. The U.S. Domestic segment lifted operating profit by more than 14%, and network initiatives delivered about $1.8 billion in benefits over the first nine months of 2026. UPS raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $92.6 billion and its adjusted operating profit outlook to $8.75 billion. However, average daily volume fell 3.3% in the U.S. and 8.7% internationally, management expects a slight decline in the fourth quarter, and the quarterly dividend remains at $1.64.
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UPS shares rose 6% after third-quarter revenue grew 6.7% to $22.9 billion, above the $22.28 billion analysts expected, and adjusted EPS of $1.69 beat the $1.62 consensus. U.S. revenue per piece rose 6.1% even as average daily domestic volume fell 3% after UPS finished cutting Amazon deliveries, lifting adjusted domestic operating profit 14% to $1.03 billion. UPS raised its 2026 outlook to about $92.6 billion in revenue (from $91.2 billion), adjusted operating profit of about $8.75 billion, adjusted EPS of about $7.28 (from $7.22) and free cash flow of about $6.1 billion (from $5.5 billion), which covers the roughly $5.4 billion in planned dividends. Before the jump, UPS traded at 12.9x forward earnings versus a five-year average of 15.2x, and the article says the holiday quarter, with daily volume expected to fall 1.3%, is the next test.
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UPS has paid a flat $1.64 per share each quarter for seven straight quarters after a one-cent increase earlier. It expects about $5.4 billion in dividend payments in 2026 against adjusted free cash flow guidance of about $6.1 billion, or roughly 89% of cash flow, and at $109.14 the stock yields about 6%. U.S. Domestic revenue per piece rose 6.1% in the third quarter even as average daily volume fell 3.3% as UPS cut Amazon volume, while the segment's adjusted margin widened to 7.0% from 6.4%. UPS ended the quarter with $6.8 billion in cash, and CFO Brian Dykes said 2027 free cash flow should keep improving dividend coverage, though management gave no timeline for a raise. The article concludes the dividend looks safe and identifies U.S. Domestic revenue per piece as the most useful early signal for the next raise.
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UPS raised its full-year revenue guidance to roughly $92.6 billion, up 4.4% from the prior year and above its earlier $91.2 billion forecast. Third-quarter revenue rose 6.7% to $22.9 billion, with net income of $1.16 billion ($1.37 per share) and adjusted EPS of $1.69. U.S. revenue per package jumped 6.1% after the company finished winding down lower-margin Amazon volume, while total U.S. average daily volume fell 3.3%. For the fourth quarter, UPS expects revenue of $25.7 billion, up 5%, and a 5.9% average rate increase takes effect Dec. 21. Shares rose nearly 6% on the report, and Happy Returns volume is expected to have tripled since UPS acquired it in 2023.
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UPS raised its full-year financial guidance, expecting to benefit from high prices and resilient demand through the holiday season. CEO Carol Tomé intends to lead the company for at least two more years to negotiate a new labor deal with its unionized Teamsters drivers. Bloomberg's Lee Klaskow says UPS is shifting away from low-margin business-to-consumer packages tied to Amazon toward higher-margin areas such as data centers, healthcare, pharmaceuticals and automotive, with high-tech volumes up around 30% even as overall volume fell. UPS shares are up about 4% year to date, versus about 30% for FedEx and about 25% for DHL, and the stock is still seen as a show-me story amid restructuring and execution risks. The commentator also expects costs to go up in the coming negotiation, while the fuel-cost discussion in the article is cut off.
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UPS reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.69 per share, above the $1.63 expected, and revenue of $22.9 billion versus $22.29 billion expected. Net income was $1.16 billion, or $1.37 per share, down from $1.31 billion, or $1.55, a year earlier. The company raised its full-year consolidated revenue projection to about $92.6 billion from $91.2 billion and forecasts fourth-quarter revenue of $25.7 billion. Domestic revenue rose 4.5%, international revenue 7.1%, and supply chain solutions 18.2%, driven mainly by forwarding and logistics, including healthcare. CEO Carol Tomé said UPS is entering the holiday shipping season 'from a position of strength' with the most automated and efficient network in its history.
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