News about AUDUSD

The Reserve Bank of Australia is pushing back against the view that interest rates work mainly by punishing borrowers, and has shifted its messaging to stress the importance of the exchange rate for monetary policy. RBA modelling indicates that exchange rate movements triggered by rate changes can account for as much as two-thirds of monetary policy's impact on GDP and inflation.

A Grattan Institute report says state government debt has more than doubled since 2019, with the interest bill now at 0.6% of annual economic output, and warns that future Australians will pay for today's deficits through higher taxes or worse public services. An AMP survey finds more than half of adults under 30 have changed their plans to have children due to cost-of-living pressures, and saving a 20% deposit takes most more than a decade. To repair the budget, Grattan proposes raising the GST from 10% to 15% and taxing fresh food, which it estimates would raise an extra $76 billion a year, with $33 billion going to income tax cuts, $25 billion to welfare and rent assistance, and $18 billion to the states. It also recommends scrapping the 2018 GST deal with Western Australia to save $6 billion. The report notes Australia's tax take of 29.4% of GDP is below the OECD average of about 34%, arguing for modest revenue increases alongside spending discipline.

Deloitte Access Economics forecasts that underlying inflation in Australia will have been above the Reserve Bank's 2.5% target for a full seven years by late 2028, when it is finally tamed. Governor Michele Bullock faces growing questions about whether blunt interest-rate policy is effective. At the press conference after September's rate rise, she was asked whether monetary policy had become detached from the problems it is meant to solve. She responded that rate increases affect far more than mortgage holders.

Australians recorded one of the steepest falls in consumer confidence among developed countries over the past year, as stubborn inflation and rising interest rates squeezed household budgets. According to OECD figures, Australian consumer confidence fell 1.1 index points in the 12 months to September, with only Chile and Belgium recording sharper declines. The article says the drop highlights the Albanese government's struggle to convince voters it is doing enough to address cost-of-living pressures.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is concerned that inflation will stay elevated because of the fallout from the war with Iran, which could force it to raise rates further even though this may increase unemployment as the economy slows. Oil finished the week at US$106 a barrel and shows no sign of falling, while the RBA's forecasts assumed prices as much as US$20 lower, and diesel is also much higher. Prices for other commodities have climbed too, with wheat up 37%, soybeans up 24%, sugar up 42% and cocoa more than doubled this year. After unemployment rose to a high of 4.7% in September, markets sharply cut the chance of a rate rise to 4.85% at the November meeting, from about one in three to closer to one in five. Governor Michele Bullock and researcher Anthony Brassil warned that high inflation erodes purchasing power and hits households with limited financial buffers hardest.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is growing concerned that oil, which closed last week at $US106 a barrel with no sign of falling as the Middle East war broadens, could keep inflation elevated and force further rate rises even at the cost of higher unemployment. Inflation has been above the bank's 2-3 per cent target in three of the past four years, while wheat is up 37 per cent, sugar 42 per cent and soybeans 24 per cent this year. After unemployment rose to a five-year high of 4.7 per cent in September, markets sharply cut expectations of a rate rise to 4.85 per cent at the November meeting. Governor Michele Bullock and Anthony Brassil noted that a supply shock means monetary policy cannot eliminate the real economic loss, only influence how it is distributed over time. With the cash rate at a 15-year high of 4.6 per cent, low-income earners, who are unlikely to hold mortgages, are hit hardest by inflation and rent increases.