News about investors

Two historically near-100% accurate market signals are currently conflicting: the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio has risen above 30 only five times before, and the stock market crashed after each occurrence, and it now sits around 40. In contrast, since 1938 the market has risen in the 12 months after midterm elections 95% of the time, and since 1950 the fourth quarter of midterm election years has risen in 84% of quarters, with an average quarterly return of 6.6%. The article notes that missing the 10 best days over the past 30 years would have cut returns by more than half, and 76% of those top days occurred during bear markets or in the first two months of a new bull market. The author argues the better approach is to stay invested, dollar-cost average into index ETFs such as the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) or Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), and avoid trying to time the market.

Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT) shares surged 39% a day after the company made an announcement involving its adviser, Ashford. The available text is truncated and does not give details of the announcement.

Investor Minh Hoàng (32) asked ChatGPT which three stocks to buy with VND 200 million after Tết and invested everything at once, gaining after more than a month. In recent months, however, his portfolio has fallen as much as 48% as the recommended blue-chip stocks kept declining. Ms. Hạnh (45, Ho Chi Minh City) turned to Gemini to restructure a portfolio losing more than VND 150 million, yet after more than half a year her account has not improved. Trương Quang Bình of Yuanta Vietnam (YSVN) says AI summarizes information quickly but cannot forecast a company's prospects or future cash flows, does not understand investors' risk tolerance, and may speculate when data is missing. Securities firms say access to accurate data is the biggest obstacle, and building a reliable data foundation may take 2-3 years, so AI use in this field remains fairly basic.