Two historically near-100% accurate market signals are currently conflicting: the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio has risen above 30 only five times before, and the stock market crashed after each occurrence, and it now sits around 40. In contrast, since 1938 the market has risen in the 12 months after midterm elections 95% of the time, and since 1950 the fourth quarter of midterm election years has risen in 84% of quarters, with an average quarterly return of 6.6%. The article notes that missing the 10 best days over the past 30 years would have cut returns by more than half, and 76% of those top days occurred during bear markets or in the first two months of a new bull market. The author argues the better approach is to stay invested, dollar-cost average into index ETFs such as the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) or Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), and avoid trying to time the market.
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Related tickers and likely impact
QQQ
• NeutralInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/29/2026 | 715.34 |
| Change that session | -1.42% |
SPY
• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/29/2026 | 769.36 |
| Change that session | -0.38% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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