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- Inflation expected to ease to 3 . 7 % in September year but cash rate still forecast to rise
Markets price about a 70% chance the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lift the Official Cash Rate, now 2.75%, on October 28, and a 100% chance by December. ANZ says that if Q3 CPI lands near its 3.7% forecast, an October hike stays on the table given the weaker NZ dollar and higher oil prices since September, with tradeable inflation seen at 4.2% and non-tradeable at 3.5%. Westpac expects the central bank to look past the slight dip in headline inflation, as fuel prices rebounded late in the quarter and inflation for the December quarter could exceed the 4.1% of the June quarter. BNZ believes the bank will keep lifting the cash rate, including at its upcoming October meeting, due to concerns over fuel prices and the weak NZ dollar.
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