Netflix shares are down 31% year-to-date, including a 6% drop after the latest earnings report, as viewing hours rose only 2% in the first half and its viewer share fell from 8.8% to 7.8% in the year ending July, according to Nielsen. Still, third-quarter revenue rose 11.8% to $12.9 billion and EPS increased from $0.59 to $0.87, partly due to lower content spending from timing factors. The article argues Netflix is outgrowing rivals such as Disney, Skydance and Comcast, which face declining legacy businesses, yet its valuation is not higher than theirs. Analysts expect revenue to grow 11.2% to $56.9 billion in 2027, and the author contends the stock is oversold and has rebounded from similar downturns before.
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- No, I'm Not Selling You My Netflix Stock Today
Netflix shares opened lower on Wednesday after its third-quarter report beat on revenue and earnings, but the outlook for the next quarter disappointed. Revenue rose 11.8% to $12.87 billion and earnings climbed 44% to $0.87 per share, yet Netflix guided fourth-quarter revenue up 11.5% to $13.4 billion and net income up just 15% to $0.67 per share, below the $0.73 analysts expected. Earlier this month, Netflix cut 6% of its workforce, and several executives, including its chief content officer and head of film, left the company. The stock hit a two-year low after losing almost half its value over the past year, and the author notes it trades at less than 17 times forward earnings while value investors debate whether it is a value trap.
- I've Covered Netflix for 24 Years. Here's Whether the Stock Is Overvalued Right Now.
The author, who has followed Netflix (NFLX) for 24 years, notes the stock has fallen more than 40% over the past year after a long run of gains. Netflix's trailing revenue is now over $48 billion at a record net margin, compared with $153 million in revenue when it went public in 2002. The stock trades at under 20 times this year's projected earnings, under 19 times next year's and 15 times the year after, and guidance calls for 11.7% third-quarter revenue growth. The author argues the valuation looks compelling for a premium business with pricing flexibility and that the current pullback is milder than the 2011 Qwikster and 2022 sell-offs. Results are due after the market closes on Wednesday, which could change the valuation math.
- Netflix Stock Has Gained in the Fourth Quarter in 17 of the Last 24 Years
Netflix shares ended the fourth quarter higher in 17 of the past 24 years, with a median gain of about 12%, but the writer argues the reaction to the October earnings report matters more than this history. Since 2004, the stock has made 14 one-day moves of 10% or more after that report, and in 13 of those years it closed the quarter in the same direction; last year shares fell 10% and finished the quarter down about 22%. Revenue growth has slowed each quarter, from 18% in late 2025 to 13% in April–June 2026, and management forecasts 12% for the third quarter. The stock, at roughly $72, is 42% below its 52-week high of $124.86 and trades near 19 times analysts' 2027 earnings estimates. The writer says the fourth-quarter forecast, which implies growth of about 11% to 14%, will matter more than the third-quarter results reported on Oct. 20.
- Should You Buy Netflix Stock Before Oct. 20? History Has a Clear Answer.
Netflix reports third-quarter results next week, and its shares have fallen 40% over the past year as momentum and expectations both remain low. The company's own guidance calls for revenue growth of 11.7%, its weakest in three years, and revenue growth is expected to slow for a third consecutive quarter. The author notes the stock has fallen after each of its last five quarterly reports, with an early spring rally as the main exception. The article also points out that Netflix has recovered from past plunges, including an 83% drop after the Qwikster fiasco in 2011 and a 77% peak-to-trough fall in 2022 that it made back within two years. The author finds the recent chart troubling, but says the longer-term record is more encouraging.
- Netflix Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
Netflix (NFLX) will report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 20, with the company forecasting revenue of $12.86 billion, up 12% (11% F/X-neutral). The Zacks consensus is $12.87 billion in revenue and EPS of 82 cents, with operating margin projected at 33.2% versus 28.2% a year earlier. Pricing, advertising (targeting about $3 billion of 2026 ad revenue) and content costs are key factors, while headwinds include currency swings, competition from Apple, Amazon and Disney, view-hour growth of just 2% in the first half, and $1 billion of debt maturing later this year. Zacks ranks Netflix #4 (Sell) and its model does not predict an earnings beat; full-year revenue guidance is $51–$51.4 billion.
- How the Termination Fee and Low Valuation Create Asymmetric Upside for Netflix (NFLX)
White Brook Capital's Q3 2026 investor letter is cautiously optimistic. Its Ethical All-Cap Strategy has outperformed, while the Small Cap Strategy lagged due to execution delays, higher interest rates and market pressure. The firm says the economy remains resilient on AI infrastructure investment and consumer spending, but rising rates, energy and labor costs, fiscal deficits, trade conflicts and geopolitical tensions raise questions, and it favors AI infrastructure providers such as Nvidia, TSMC, SK Hynix and Qnity over expensive frontier-model developers. The letter notes that Netflix collected a $2.8 billion termination fee after losing the Warner Bros. Discovery auction, avoiding the cost of a large acquisition. Netflix closed at $68.69 per share, a $286.02 billion market cap, with shares down 3.74% over one month and 38.47% over 52 weeks; the firm views the stock as cheap given slower US growth, strong free cash flow and potential buybacks.
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