Eli Lilly, once a steady insulin maker, became a major player in obesity drugs after tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro and Zepbound, reshaped its business. A $1,000 investment ten years ago grew to $18,637 in share price terms, versus $3,634 for the S&P 500 over the same period, though these figures exclude dividends, which rose from $0.51 to $1.73 a quarter. Q2 2026 revenue rose 47.7% to $22.97 billion, and the company raised full-year guidance to $85.0–87.0 billion. Volume growth of 60% has more than offset a 13% fall in realized prices, while Lilly plans a U.S. filing for retatrutide in Q1 2027. The article notes shares fell about 22% between February 4 and April 30, 2026, before recovering.
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Eli Lilly's exploratory Phase 3b TOGETHER-PsO data showed that combining Taltz with Zepbound in adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis and obesity or overweight changed far more immune and metabolic biomarkers than Taltz alone, with broader responses emerging as early as Week 12. The findings point to a possible immunometabolic link between psoriasis and obesity, which could let Lilly pair its immunology and obesity portfolios. The article says the data does not materially change the near-term focus on obesity and diabetes volumes or the risks from GLP-1 pricing pressure and litigation. It also cites Phase 2b EloraTZP results combining eloralintide with tirzepatide. The article's investment narrative projects $118.9 billion in revenue and $50.1 billion in earnings by 2029, implying a fair value of $1,329, about 12% above the current price.
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Eli Lilly (LLY) returned 36.37% over the six months to October 15, compared with 21.5% for the Insider Monkey Billionaire Index and 15.74% for the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. Mounjaro and Zepbound still drive most growth, while Lilly is expanding with the oral obesity drug Foundayo, international markets and treatments beyond obesity, and is investing an additional $4.5 billion in its Indiana facilities. In the second quarter of 2026, revenue rose 48% on a 60% increase in volume, but realized prices fell 13%, partly due to lower international prices, while immunology, oncology and neuroscience products grew 121% combined. LLY trades at 38.64x trailing and 24.39x forward earnings, with forecasts pointing to earnings roughly doubling from last year to next year. The article also flags risks including pricing pressure, heavy spending on production, research and acquisitions, and significant acquired R&D charges in the second quarter.
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Eli Lilly's Foundayo, an oral GLP-1 weight-loss medicine approved in the U.S. in April, is drawing new patients, with 80% of its prescriptions earlier this year going to people who had never taken a GLP-1 medicine before. The company's Onswik, a once-weekly basal insulin for diabetes approved in September, could strengthen its diabetes portfolio, though Novo Nordisk's Awiqli was approved first in March. The investigational retatrutide showed average weight loss of up to 28.3% over 80 weeks in one Phase 3 study, and Eli Lilly plans to submit it for regulatory approval in the first quarter of 2027. The article argues these drugs could power Eli Lilly's next phase of growth beyond Zepbound.
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A mouse study funded by the NIH found that semaglutide, made by Novo Nordisk and sold as Ozempic and Wegovy, extended the lifespan of older, healthy mice by tempering aging effects, with treated mice showing better muscle and cognitive function. The author assumes that tirzepatide, Eli Lilly's main GLP-1 drug, could show similar effects, though results in humans remain a long way off. Gallup data cited in the article show that US adult use of GLP-1 weight-loss injectables has nearly quadrupled since 2024, reaching 11% this year from 3% two years ago. J.P. Morgan expects about 25 million Americans to be on GLP-1 treatment by 2030, and Morgan Stanley forecasts the market will more than double from 2025 to 2035, to $190 billion.
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