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Bank Indonesia faces mounting pressure to hike after MSCI threat fuels market rout

Bank Indonesia faces pressure to raise rates at Wednesday's meeting after MSCI said it may move Indonesia to standalone status from emerging-market status, triggering a selloff in stocks and the rupiah. Citibank now expects a 50 basis-point hike to 6.25%, while Capital Economics and Permata Bank expect 25 basis points to 6%, from the current 5.75%. The rupiah weakened to 18,030 per dollar, near its June record low and down about 8% this year. Permata's chief economist Josua Pardede estimates foreign investors have net sold about $5 billion of Indonesian stocks this year, and a downgrade could bring $3 billion to $5 billion in passive outflows plus $15 billion in actively managed money under review. He warns that lasting doubts about market integrity could raise Indonesia's cost of capital.

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