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Original headline: Bank of Canada interest rate decision Oct . 28 : Will rates rise ?
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interest ratesCanadacentral bankUSDCAD
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Related tickers and likely impact
USD/CAD
• NeutralRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 1.40091 |
| Change that session | -0.28% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Will Tiff Macklem play with economic fire ?
The opinion piece by David Rosenberg argues against a Bank of Canada rate hike, even though markets are pricing a hike next week as a near certainty. He says headline inflation near 3% for three straight months stems mostly from gasoline prices, up 28% over the past year, in a global supply shock, while core inflation measures are at or below 2%. He points to weak domestic conditions, including a roughly 1% trend in real GDP growth, more than 40,000 jobs lost this year, a contracting housing market, and wage growth slowing to 2.3% year over year from 3.3% a year earlier. Job vacancies have been flat for seven consecutive months, and collective bargaining agreements average about 3% a year without cost-of-living clauses. In his view, a rate hike would squeeze real incomes and consumer spending, which accounts for around 60% of the economy.
- Canadian dollar hit nearly one - month high after Alberta vote
The Canadian dollar rose as much as 0.55% against the US dollar, its best day since September, after about 76% of Albertans voted to remain in Canada in a referendum on Monday. The result is a win for Prime Minister Mark Carney, as voters rejected a binding referendum on independence that could have been held as early as 2027. The loonie also drew support from expectations the Bank of Canada will raise rates at its Oct. 28 meeting, with overnight swaps pricing about an 80% chance of a hike, up from roughly 30% a week earlier. Canada's inflation rose to 3.1% in September, and households' longer-term inflation expectations are rising; Governor Tiff Macklem said higher oil prices are supporting growth. The bank has warned it may need to raise rates if energy prices stay elevated and inflation pressures spread to goods and services.
- Bank of Canada could still hike rates in 2026
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem sounded hawkish in an interview at an International Monetary Fund meeting, leading economists to suggest a rate hike could still come in 2026. Canada's headline inflation rose to 3.1% year over year in September, slightly below the 3.2% estimate, driven by higher gasoline prices, and has been above the bank's 1–3% target for eight of the past nine months. Core inflation slowed to 1.9% month over month (from 2%) and 1.8% year over year (from 1.9%), while the benchmark rate has been held at 2.25% for the past seven meetings. Bank of Montreal said markets had leaned toward a hike, but a tame core reading won't necessarily stop the bank as it stays focused on headline inflation above 3%. Royal Bank of Canada expects the bank to hold through the rest of the year and hike next year, given job losses in August and September, while KPMG Canada expects a hold in October with a possible hike as soon as December.
- Bank of Canada set for pair of important data drops ahead of live rate decision
- The Bank of Canada at an Inflection Point : Inflation Fears Live on
- Sentiment improved , but new tariffs weigh on business outlook : BoC report
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